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Old 07-31-2013   #1
Texans_Chick
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Default Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

A Q&A I did with Tom Gower on this year's Texans prediction:

Football Outsiders Almanac bullish on the Texans

Tons of stuff we didn't talk about but a nice taste of what is in this year's FOA.
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Old 07-31-2013   #2
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

I don't know why but I initially read that as "football outsiders bulls**t on the texans"
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Old 07-31-2013   #3
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

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Originally Posted by Stemp View Post
I don't know why but I initially read that as "football outsiders bulls**t on the texans"
I think that headline would get me in trouble.

In semi-related news, I hate writing headlines.
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Old 07-31-2013   #4
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

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Originally Posted by Texans_Chick View Post
I think that headline would get me in trouble.

In semi-related news, I hate writing headlines.
Why would it get you in trouble. We bull***t on the Texans all the time around here
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Old 07-31-2013   #5
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

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Originally Posted by Texans_Chick View Post
I think that headline would get me in trouble.

In semi-related news, I hate writing headlines.
What trouble? Aren't you doing Chronicle a favor these days by working for them for free?
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Old 07-31-2013   #6
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

Thanks for the read, TC.

BTW, the poll on Keenum and Yates is interesting.
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Old 07-31-2013   #7
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

TC.... thanks. Somehow you always manage to ask the questions I would ask.

I found this interesting
Quote:
The Texans were right to play such a conservative personnel grouping so often, as they’ve struggled badly the past couple seasons when they’ve played “11.” In 2012, their DVOA in “12″ was 14.9%, compared to -27.5% in “11.” In 2011, when they had Jacoby Jones and thus better WR depth (at least in the games Andre Johnson played), they had a 17.6% DVOA in “12″ and -7.3% DVOA in “11.” DVOA includes an adjustment for game situation, so this suggests the Texans offense simply hasn’t worked as well when they’ve played with more wide receivers. This could reflect the quality of the wide receiver depth, the particular strengths of the offense, or a number of things it’s hard to tease out.”
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Old 07-31-2013   #8
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

Glad to see we all werent just crazy saying Kubiak is slightly conservative
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Old 07-31-2013   #9
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

Quote:
Originally Posted by paycheck71 View Post
What trouble? Aren't you doing Chronicle a favor these days by working for them for free?
You make a terrific point that is best for me to ignore.

I try to think of it as not a Chronicle thing and more as something I can give to fans who I love. Some people host big tailgates, I host a blog.

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Old 07-31-2013   #10
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

Quote:
Originally Posted by Texans_Chick View Post
You make a terrific point that is best for me to ignore.

I try to think of it as not a Chronicle thing and more as something I can give to fans who I love. Some people host big tailgates, I host a blog.

And we all greatly appreciate it!
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Old 07-31-2013   #11
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

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Originally Posted by Stemp View Post
I don't know why but I initially read that as "football outsiders bulls**t on the texans"
That's exactly what I first read... LOL
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Old 08-02-2013   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rey View Post
I would use a face palm smiley if I did that sort of thing.

I don't care what their record is as long as it gets them into the play-offs.

I really don't care if you are satisfied with what they ended up doing last year. But please, don't try to bring me down to your low expectations.
But they did get into the playoffs....

You wanted them to show well against good teams. They did that against more than half the good teams they played.

I don't actually recall saying what my expectations were, so that's odd that you'd call them low.
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Old 08-02-2013   #13
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

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Originally Posted by noxiousdog View Post
But they did get into the playoffs....

You wanted them to show well against good teams. They did that against more than half the good teams they played.

I don't actually recall saying what my expectations were, so that's odd that you'd call them low.
Don't forget to mention that both GB & NE had their butts handed to them by lesser teams as well.
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Old 08-02-2013   #14
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

Maybe its the homer in me talking but I feel REALLY damn good about this season in all areas but one: Outside linebacker. We have zero depth and one starter now has a hamstring injury.
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Old 08-02-2013   #15
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
Don't forget to mention that both GB & NE had their butts handed to them by lesser teams as well.
How do you conclude who is a lesser team?

What lesser teams handed NE and GB their Butts?

I don't believe the Texans got beat badly by any "lesser teams" so I don't even know what point you're trying to make???
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Old 08-02-2013   #16
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

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Originally Posted by Rey View Post
How do you conclude who is a lesser team?

What lesser teams handed NE and GB their Butts?

I don't believe the Texans got beat badly by any "lesser teams" so I don't even know what point you're trying to make???
Packers lost to the Vikings twice. Means the Texans were beaten by a lesser team as well

Pats lost to the Cardinals and Ravens (who were not good during the regular season)
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Old 08-02-2013   #17
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

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Originally Posted by DX-TEX View Post
Packers lost to the Vikings twice. Means the Texans were beaten by a lesser team as well

Pats lost to the Cardinals and Ravens (who were not good during the regular season)
Think Rey was pointing out to the 'handing them their butts' meaning a whipping. Pats lost by a combined 3 points in both those games and the Packers only loss once to the Vikings and it was by 3 points. The other game they won it.
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Old 08-02-2013   #18
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

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Originally Posted by noxiousdog View Post
But they did get into the playoffs....

You wanted them to show well against good teams. They did that against more than half the good teams they played.
What good teams? Denver early in the year when they were still feeling themselves out? Baltimore before they switched OC's and had one of their worst games of the year?

Chicago? Seriously? The offense didn't do much that game and had Cutler not gotten hurt that game could have easily gone either way.

But yeah...Lets celebrate those wins. Nevermind them getting their asses handed to them when they were: 1) Undefeated against a good team playing in front of a national audience 2) getting owned against the lowly vikings and colts when they needed to win for home field advantage 3) being one slightly overthrown ball away from being bounced in the first round against the Bengals 4) And then finally, going into NE and getting thrashed




Quote:
I don't actually recall saying what my expectations were, so that's odd that you'd call them low
You don't have to say everything directly. When you say something was good enough, that defines your expectations. If it wasn't good enough, then what exactly is your point?
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Old 08-02-2013   #19
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rey View Post
What good teams? Denver early in the year when they were still feeling themselves out? Baltimore before they switched OC's and had one of their worst games of the year?

Chicago? Seriously? The offense didn't do much that game and had Cutler not gotten hurt that game could have easily gone either way.

But yeah...Lets celebrate those wins. Nevermind them getting their asses handed to them when they were: 1) Undefeated against a good team playing in front of a national audience 2) getting owned against the lowly vikings and colts when they needed to win for home field advantage 3) being one slightly overthrown ball away from being bounced in the first round against the Bengals 4) And then finally, going into NE and getting thrashed

You don't have to say everything directly. When you say something was good enough, that defines your expectations. If it wasn't good enough, then what exactly is your point?


You're all over the map.

You specificially said, "I don't care what their record is as long as it gets them into the play-offs." They made the playoffs and won a game.

You are then saying the Broncos weren't good when we played them and the Bears weren't good at the end. You can't have it both ways. Either you can take the variability into account, or don't. Regardless, in my opinion both were good teams. Not great teams, but good teams, and we beat both of them on the road.

Then you're reading into my comments to argue against something I haven't said or implied.
I didn't say they were good enough. I said it's not realistic to expect them to win every game.

If you're only going to be happy if they win the Super Bowl, fine. That's your perrogative. But don't make stuff up if you don't want to come out and say it directly.
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