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Old 06-21-2013   #1
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Default What's real? PreDraft rankings

I found this article. I read this & got to thinking....
Quote:
■ Safety Duron Harmon, Rutgers, (third round, 91st overall): This one still remains a bit of a headscratcher because Harmon does appear a bit limited on film. He’ll be compared to the safeties taken in the fourth round — Duke Williams (105, Bills), Shamarko Thomas (111, Steelers), Phillip Thomas (119, Redskins) — for years to come. Thomas will be the most interesting case because the Steelers traded up to get him and needed a play-making safety. Harmon is a tough, smart, and physical safety. He shows best close to the line of scrimmage against the run and in coverage. With the Patriots hoping Tavon Wilson becomes a full-time starter at strong safety, Harmon fits the bill as a possible replacement for Wilson as the “money” position in the dime — the third safety who plays a hybrid role against tight ends and the run.
What if the draft gurus got it wrong?

Now I know we say they're wrong all the time & we say it's useless to put a grade on these guys anyway. But one way or another a team has to decide which player they like better than the others. Obviously the Patriots graded Harmon as a better fit for their team than those other guys.

So..... who's right?

Of course, anyone can chime in, but I'm really interested in what our draftkniks have to say & I'm looking at a team other than the Texans, because I want to keep this "kinda" neutral.

So you guys who do your own grades, what did you have on Harmon? Were you in-line with the Patriots or were you closer to the other "draft gurus" ?
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Old 06-21-2013   #2
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Default Re: What's real? PreDraft rankings

Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
I found this article. I read this & got to thinking....
What if the draft gurus got it wrong?

Now I know we say they're wrong all the time & we say it's useless to put a grade on these guys anyway. But one way or another a team has to decide which player they like better than the others. Obviously the Patriots graded Harmon as a better fit for their team than those other guys.

So..... who's right?

Of course, anyone can chime in, but I'm really interested in what our draftkniks have to say & I'm looking at a team other than the Texans, because I want to keep this "kinda" neutral.

So you guys who do your own grades, what did you have on Harmon? Were you in-line with the Patriots or were you closer to the other "draft gurus" ?
I'm far from a draft guru, but I don't even understand what you're asking. All teams take someone most consider a reach once in a while. Sometimes they're right, sometimes they're wrong, but the Pats are far from the only team to do it.

I guess I'm saying what makes this guy worth singling out?
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Old 06-21-2013   #3
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Default Re: What's real? PreDraft rankings

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
What if the draft gurus got it wrong?
Happens every year.

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
So..... who's right?
Won't know that until they start playing real games.
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Old 06-22-2013   #4
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Default Re: What's real? PreDraft rankings

Not sure where you are going but I did not have Harmon rated that high. I had him in 5th IIRC but here is my April Mock for Texans and I had my guy pegged in 5th but took him in 4th due to the need. Hawthorne was taken by Pitts in 5th but he will be playing CB at least initially. Also, some on MB had Hawthorne rated a high as second round.


4. S Terry Hawthorne 6' 195 4.4 this CB reminds me some of 3rd year KJ and could eventually start at corner but I project him to safety. He might be there in 5th but not taking any chances. I also like Robert Lester but his coverage is less than Hawthorne's.
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Old 06-22-2013   #5
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Default Re: What's real? PreDraft rankings

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Originally Posted by badboy View Post
Not sure where you are going...
I'm just thinking out loud.

Like I've said before, I don't watch college football enough to have my own opinions about these players. So I wanted to get input from you guys who do.

How did you compare Harmon to Duke Williams (105, Bills), Shamarko Thomas (111, Steelers), & Phillip Thomas (119, Redskins)

Were you shocked the Patriots took him?

See, I'm thinking the Patriots have their own scouts, people who evaluate college players. Their scouts study these kids, vette them, interview them... but as always, the media wants to say "they got it wrong" & I'd bet looking at Mayock, Kipper, & whoever, most people would think the same.

So you had Hawthorne in the 5th, was that because you thought there were two rounds of players (64ish) better? Or did you think there were other players that fit other team needs better?

Looking back, how do you explain the Patriots taking him in the third? Or do you forget about the last draft & not try to "understand" it?
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Old 06-22-2013   #6
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Default Re: What's real? PreDraft rankings

Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
I'm just thinking out loud.

Like I've said before, I don't watch college football enough to have my own opinions about these players. So I wanted to get input from you guys who do.

How did you compare Harmon to Duke Williams (105, Bills), Shamarko Thomas (111, Steelers), & Phillip Thomas (119, Redskins)

Were you shocked the Patriots took him?

See, I'm thinking the Patriots have their own scouts, people who evaluate college players. Their scouts study these kids, vette them, interview them... but as always, the media wants to say "they got it wrong" & I'd bet looking at Mayock, Kipper, & whoever, most people would think the same.

So you had Hawthorne in the 5th, was that because you thought there were two rounds of players (64ish) better? Or did you think there were other players that fit other team needs better?

Looking back, how do you explain the Patriots taking him in the third? Or do you forget about the last draft & not try to "understand" it?
Usually after a draft, I dump my notes and give minimal attention to other team players as my focus shifts to new college players. Unlike most mockers, I don't do a round by round mock of all 32 teams. I do evaluate several others who do. I evaluate my positioning based on my own viewing of players, other sources and then interacting which folks I have come to respect and trust over many years such as Beerlover and Rmartin65. I know how much my 3 Amigos teammates put into research and the countless hours we debate players all season long.

Mildly surprised Pats took Harmon but I view draft by others only as to how it pertains to Texans. I was more shocked by Dallas taking Travis Frederick in first round.
I would definitely say scouts are far and away better evaluators than those paid mockers in tv. Still even they get it wrong.
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Old 06-23-2013   #7
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Default Re: What's real? PreDraft rankings

With the draft, there are so many different ways to look at it that it will drive you to drink... if you let it.

When you talk about professional draft gurus (not draft gurus that frequent this board), you're basically talking about guys whose job is to pour over tape and film on all these players, interview some scouts to get their feelings on things, and then put it all together into one big present for amateur consumption. They have to look at and grade hundreds and hundreds of players to be able to be mildly relevant.

And then they have to look at every team and try to figure out its strengths and weaknesses and what it's likely to do in FA.

And THEN they have to make a decision: do they create a mock draft based on where they think a guy WILL go or where they think a guy SHOULD go? Will a particular team draft BPA, BPA+Need, or purely by Need? IIRC, Gil Brandt creates several mocks based on different things and his last mock is where he thinks guys will go.

So.

On the other side (excluding amateurs), you have the actual 32 teams. Each team has a team of scouts that work particular areas of the country. They're told what to look for; they're given specific positions and specific criteria. They filter out good and bad and pass that up the food chain. The film on the potential candidates is then given to position coaches and coordinators who give their grades based on scheme and whatnot. And all of this is then whittled down to about 100 guys that are on their board, players that this team would like to have AND at what point they think it's worth it to go after them.

No two teams' boards are going to be the same. And they feed misinformation to the Professional Draft Gurus hoping to create smokescreens about which way they're going to go and to drive certain player's stocks higher and certain player's stocks lower so they can get the guys they want when they want them.

My point here is that I'm not that shocked when a guy doesn't get drafted where everyone's expecting him to get drafted. I'm not saying I'm not surprised when someone like Tyson Alualu goes a couple of rounds before I expected him to or when someone else drops right out of the draft but I expect that to happen to several players in every draft class. I get my information from the Professional Draft Gurus AND the amateur draft gurus, neither of which really have that clear of an insight into how all of these players are ranked by all the 32 teams.

I just like being able to know where these guys are ranked by the world at large prior to their being drafted. Then I like to see if they out perform expectations or underperform. But I don't expect those original rankings to be The Final Word.
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Old 06-23-2013   #8
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Default Re: What's real? PreDraft rankings

Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
I'm just thinking out loud.

Like I've said before, I don't watch college football enough to have my own opinions about these players. So I wanted to get input from you guys who do.

How did you compare Harmon to Duke Williams (105, Bills), Shamarko Thomas (111, Steelers), & Phillip Thomas (119, Redskins)

Were you shocked the Patriots took him?

See, I'm thinking the Patriots have their own scouts, people who evaluate college players. Their scouts study these kids, vette them, interview them... but as always, the media wants to say "they got it wrong" & I'd bet looking at Mayock, Kipper, & whoever, most people would think the same.

So you had Hawthorne in the 5th, was that because you thought there were two rounds of players (64ish) better? Or did you think there were other players that fit other team needs better?

Looking back, how do you explain the Patriots taking him in the third? Or do you forget about the last draft & not try to "understand" it?
There are a lot if different reasons for a guy being taken above others. We don't even have to look at the patriots. Look at dre hop in the first for us. There were several wr's still on board when we picked that had draft grades worthy of our pick.

We can't know for sure why we chose Hopkins. We liked him more. They may have felt he was safer, most ready, able to contribute right away...or they could have felt that he was just going to be a better player than the guys we could have taken. Maybe they felt like he fit our scheme the best.

And it might not all be based on what we think of our guy. They might see something in the guys we didn't take that completely put them off.

There are other factors as well like friends vouching for guys or having a connection to the player in some way.

I'm really stating the obvious though. It's impossible to pin down exactly why sometimes. And we won't know who is right or wrong until it all plays out.
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Old 06-25-2013   #9
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Default Re: What's real? PreDraft rankings

Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post

What if the draft gurus got it wrong?

Now I know we say they're wrong all the time & we say it's useless to put a grade on these guys anyway. But one way or another a team has to decide which player they like better than the others. Obviously the Patriots graded Harmon as a better fit for their team than those other guys.

So..... who's right?

Of course, anyone can chime in, but I'm really interested in what our draftkniks have to say & I'm looking at a team other than the Texans, because I want to keep this "kinda" neutral.

So you guys who do your own grades, what did you have on Harmon? Were you in-line with the Patriots or were you closer to the other "draft gurus" ?
Rutgers players in general have been well coached up producing solid LB's & secondary personnel. I think the fact they're also in the Patriots back yard had some bearing & was a fairly well know commodity up in the north east. most of their recruits are undersized & depending on how they develop, in general terms play with high motors & fundamentally sound. Loved Khaseem Green, thought he was a steal in the 4th rd. (had him rated in 2nd) Steve Beauharnais another fine but smaller LB in 5th he went in the 7th also to the Patriots. Ryan Logan was a legit starting caliber CB could have crept into the first round if his times had been better, taken once again by Patriots in 3rd. Notice a trend? Duron was selected 8 picks later by New England. He wasn't graded that high maybe 6th or 7th round but he does remind me a bit of Glover Quin who Texans selected in the 4th rd. Good safety crop in 2013 draft & there was a bit of a run on them in the 3rd & Duron was the best fit on the board for their system so they addressed a pressing need. I think he will work out fine for them, however what is debatable is could they have waited & drafted a more highly graded player (TE's Dion Sims Michigan State & Levine Toilolo Stanford both were available). All in all a very average draft for them which is a good thing for rest of the league. I feel secure in saying the Texans gained ground on them this offseason. So to me the big thing is how the rookies fit into the system they're drafted, how quickly they adapt to the playbook & what opportunities present themselves. Patriots played a safe, but underwhelming haul as a group nothing of note so in my book they took a step backwards
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