Originally Posted by aj.
...but it only frees it up if he doesn't earn the per-game bonus, which if I was a betting man, would appear to be a good bet.
I don't think this is exactly right (at least as far as this year's cap). I think the bonuses are classified as incentives, which can either be "not likely to be earned" or "likely to be earned". I believe that deciding which category it will be is done by comparing to the previous year. Since Green was inactive so much of last year, I think these would be all or mostly "not likely to be earned."
My understanding of the salary cap is that only the likely to be earned incentives would count against this year's cap (if earned). The NLTBE incentives, if earned, would count instead against next year's cap. So, I think even if Green earns the incentives, the cap hit would be mainly next year.