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Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: I'm international
Section: Channel 700-ish on NFL Sunday Ticket
Re: Predict the Texans statistical finish: Defense
Originally Posted by SOLIS
That's a great discussion topic. Here's a little factoid I dug up at NFL.com...
Last year the Texans ranked 21th in total team Sacks with 31. That is roughly 1.9 sacks a game. If the Texans revamped defense, can average just a half a sack more per game we would be looking at roughly 38.5 sacks - which would have been good enough for a top-ten finish when going by last years sack totals. Of course, keep in mind, that's top-ten in total sacks. If we were to increase the average sacks from 1.9 to 2.7 (that's still averaging less than a sack a game) we would be looking at a top five finish (again based on last years sack totals).
In as far as how that pertains to the Texans total defense for next year? Well, high sack totals don't necessarily equate to top ranked defenses - as the neither the Steelers, Bucs, or Colts were in the top-ten total sacks. But if the Texans are figuring to have a better pass rush, which I'm betting they will, that will increase quarterback pressure - as the QB pressure goes up, so do the opportunity for interceptions - and that's a department the Texans need to improve in. Big time. They ranked dead last in 2007.
If the Texans have any chance of breaking the top ten in total defense, the interception total is going to have to higher. Until they prove that they can do that, their total team defense is going to suffer.
With the uncertainties in the secondary, (not saying I doubt they'll perform, we just don't know how well) I can only give them a 14th - but on the brightside of that assessment - that's a ten team improvement.
I really want to revist this topic about six games into the season. Great post TRJ.
How do 1.9 sacks a game equal less than 1 per game? Are you saying going from 1.9 to 2.7 is less than ADDING 1 sack per game? That seems doable if Smith can ever get around to playing to our players strengths, which has been sorely lacking so far.
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