Thread: FFl Stragety...
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Old 06-07-2008   #7
ChampionTexan
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Default Re: FFl Stragety...

I'll throw a contrarian opinion in the mix.

Look at the #1 QB's points - 670. Look at the #1 RB's point - 317, and look at the #1 WR's points - 326. If you get the right QB, you've more points than the point total of the top two RB's, or the top two WR's combined.

The fact that the top QB was 275 points above the top 10 QB avg., while the top RB and WR were approx. 90 points above the top 10 avg. for the respective positions also tells me there's much more upside to picking a QB at #1 - if you get the right one.

Granted, last year Brady had a historic season, and it's not likely to happen again, but unless you believe that there's going to be a significant regression for the Pats Offense, you'll probably still see him separate himself from the pack. Not that it matters for your purposes, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Manning pull back to the QB pack given the fact that Harrison is a big question-mark, and I think Gonzalez will be good, but he's still only a second year WR.

I may be a bit biased since I play in a league that's gives 6 points for a TD pass, and by doing so, bumps up the value of the position a bit. But if you had the #1 QB last year, you had a 14 TD pass advantage over the #2 QB, and a 22 TD pass advantage over the #6 QB. You don't see that kind of difference at the other two positions.

Taking RB's with your top pick - or top two picks has always been conventional wisdom. It may still be correct, but I believe that one thing that has changed over the past few years is the teams going to two back systems. Even Adrian Peterson shared the load with Chester Taylor, and he had the highest per game rushing average in the NFL. Last year, you didn't have a RB go over 1,500 yards, and with the exception of LT, you didn't have a RB score more than 12 rushing TD's (Nor did anyone but Westbrook catch more than 3). I just think the world may have changed a little bit, and the one QB who's dominating everyone these days may be worth the first pick.
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