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Old 06-17-2004   #8
infantrycak
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1.) Carr's Production: I think that this is the year where Carr should really be able to show his stuff. He has a solid and versatile O-Line and a group of young targets that give him the opportunity to make plays. I expect him to make palys with his arm and his leg this season. He is comfortable with the offense and all th pieces are in place for a breakout season.
Injuries and rookie performance are unpredictable factors every year. Carr's performance seems like the biggest factor in the success of the upcoming season. So what should we expect? Last year overall looked like a marginal improvement on 2002, but look at the pre-injury/post-injury split in performance:

Attempts/% comp/TD's/INT's/Yds per att/Rating
Pre-Injury: 204/59.8%/6 TD's/8 INT's/7.27 ypa/75.7
Post-Injury: 91/49.5%/3 TD's/5 INT's/5.82 ypa/55.7

Seems like a pretty stark contrast. IMO the benchmark for improvement should be Carr's pre-injury performance. Projected over an NFL season with an average # of offensive plays, the pre-injury performance would translate to:
497 att/15 TD's/19 INT's/3613 total yards

The Texans could do well with that if Carr would just knock the INT's down significantly. Decent improvement over pre-injury last year looks like slightly over 60% completions, 20 TD's and 15 or less INT's.
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