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Old 01-16-2005   #8
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Age: 43
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I think Matt Leinhart's decision today to stay at USC has changed the outlook of this draft tremendously. Here is what I think:

The 49ers would have been a lock of Matt Leinhart. He was the only clearcut #1, and the only QB worth the #1 pick. With Leinhart gone, its hard to say what the 49ers are going to do. It depends who the GM is going to be. I think they trade down with the Chargers.

The Chargers will get the #1 pick in exchange for both of their 1st round picks. The Chargers will then take Dan Cody at #1 and move him to OLB in their 3-4 defense. He will be a complimant to Donnie Edwards and a prominant pass rusher OPPOSITE of Foley who had a great year.
Reasons I believe this doesn't happen:

1. San Diego is cheap. They don't like to trade up because it carries larger contracts (see their first round picks for the last 5 years).
2. San Diego doesn't need to trade up. If you just finished 12-4, you're looking to add depth...not go after 1 playmaker.
3. Dan Cody is not an any system.
4. As stated earlier, if the Chargers want Cody, they can take him with one of their current picks (I bet he's available for them at the bottom of the first).

Dolphins take Benson at #2, and the Browns will grab either Aaron Rogers or Alex Smith at #3. At #4 the Bears will trade down with Dallas for Dallas' 2 first rounders, and the Boys will get Adam Jones at #4 filling there CB need.
I think the Dolphins have too many holes to fill to take Benson (or any other player) at #2. They're not just missing a RB...they need a lot of help. Factor in their lack of draft picks because of previous trades, that screams a trade down. They can find another RB comparable to Benson (maybe even better) further down.

In your scenario of Dallas, you're saying Adam Jones is worth giving up the 20th overall pick so they (Dallas) can move up 7 spots (from 11th to 4th). No CB in this or any other draft is worth that much. And like the Chargers with Cody, if they want Jones, they can simply stay put at #11 (or #20) and take him there because he will be available.

edo is dead on with his comments about what a coach/GM says around draft time.

I said it in another thread and I'll say it again. The Cow-Girls need way to much help to even think about trading away their second first round pick. They are looking to a) fix the secondary, b) fix teh D-line, c) fix the O-line and d)find a #1 WR. Now with all those needs why would they give up a second first round pick, espically for a DB, in Jones, who isn't the clear cut #1 player at his postion?
I don't think a #1 WR is a priority to Parcells. WRs we have...just need to keep them healthy. With Johnson, Glenn and Morgan, we should be fine. No hurry here. Although it'd be pretty tough to pass on Mike Williams if he makes it to #11.

I think the DL is going to be addressed first. Too many good CBs in this draft to address it with their first pick (although I wouldn't complain). Secondary will come second (and maybe even again in the second round with Woody's retirement).
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