I always hear the "experts" say that you should wait until later in the draft to take a QB. I always play on yahoo and until last year they awarded 6 points for passing TD's. This year they have changed their default setting to 4 points for passing TD's. In three of my four leagues the commissioners have customized the settings to award 6 for passing TD's. In a league that only awards 4, I believe you should wait as long as possible. If you get 6, then go ahead and grab one of the sure thing QB's.
Last year with my second round pick (12 overall) I decided to pass on Manning and grab Lamont Jordan, adhering to RB/RB rule. Manning went 13 and led his team to a championship and I finished just outside the playoffs.
This year I will still go RB/RB but in the 3rd or 4th round I want to draft; Manning, Palmer, Brady, or Brees, respectively. In my first draft this year I had the tenth pick in a ten man league and I drafted, Rudi Johnson, T. Henry, Tom Brady, Andre Johnson. I passed on some good players to grab Brady but he was the last of my top 4 on the board and I really wanted to get one of them.
I know I am in the minority with this line of thinking but it seems to me that it is better to take the guaranteed 2 TD's a game rather than betting on a 3rd or 4th rounder having a breakout year.
What do you guys think?