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Old 12-30-2004   #3
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Age: 39
Posts: 1,152
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Originally Posted by Grid
here is the article.. out of Jag land.

OK.. so I read that, and my first thought was "wow, what a fool.. apparently everyone should have drafted big ben." But then i got to thinking about it.. it is pretty interesting looking at picks 1-9. All these players drafted were "the big boys".. they were the guys that were gonna come in and set the league on fire. But look at how it turned out... the picks from 10 on are the ones that really made a difference on the field. they are the ones being talked about now.. while all those first picks are either in hiding, injured, or just "so-so".

At the time of the draft, there were four bonehead picks that I thought were obvious mistakes:
#3 AZ - Larry Fitzgerald - Not a bad player, but at a position of strength on an otherwise weak team. If Boldin and their first-round pick from 2003 couldn't make them win, why would another rookie wideout help?
#4 SD - Phillip Rivers - the #3 QB (by a lot) when they really needed a receiver (TE Gates gave them this receiving threat in the end, but at this pick no one knew that was coming)
#6 Clev - Kellen Winslow, Jr. - Between the attitude bigger than TO and Meshawn put together and being overrated skill-wise, this guy would have been a poor pick at #16, much less #6 plus a 2nd rounder.
#9 Jax - Reggie Williams - Before Mike Williams got axed from the draft, he was a distant 4th at best on WR value rankings and 7th on some. Guess what, he's been about the 5th best WR from this draft! Go figure.

The key point here is that I was hardly alone in this analysis. It was just plain bad drafting - the teams involved screwed up. It wasn't that elite prospects didn't perform, it was teams picking non-elite prospects or prospects in positions they didn't need. Sean Taylor could be added to this latter list, as he's produced pretty well in the latter half of the season but the Redskins didn't really need a safety.

I'd venture to say that the only two top 10 picks who underperformed vs my expectations were #1 Manning and #2 Gallery and neither has been completely worthless. #8 Hall had a nasty injury that's prevented him from performing - but there's no way to predict that pre-draft.

#7 Roy Williams was a great pick for Detroit. The only problem the article had with this pick is they're saying Kevin Jones was better - well, Detroit GOT Kevin Jones, too. In my book that just makes the pick all the better because they still filled their biggest need through a later trade-up and got an impact player at WR.
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