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Old 12-22-2004   #9
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Originally Posted by Grid
There are some aspects of the NFL which I think I have a fairly good understanding of.. and some which I think im completely ignorant of.

One of the aspects im ignorant of is drafting a playmaker vs drafting depth.

Now.. I keep hearing people say "we dont need one player, we need lots of players to fill holes" and "we are not one player away from the superbowl, we need alot of players" etc..etc..etc..

Now, it seems to me, that a team that is not ALMOST a superbowl contender, needs those single playmakers more than they need alot of average to good players.

Take, for example, our current roster. We are not hurting for depth really. I mean, yah in some cases there is a fairly steep drop from the starter to the 2nd stringer.. like with our CBs. Going from Dunta and Glenn to Dunta and Faggins.. that would be a pretty steep drop and could hurt us. But what makes anyone think that taking a CB in the 2nd or 3rd round will be an improvement over Faggins? He is not a BAD player.. he just isnt yet a probowl corner. The only way we could really IMPROVE our depth at CB (outside of FA) would be to draft a playmaker CB in the 1st round.

And look at our Offense.. we have most of what we need. Our Oline is struggling but I think that has as much to do with their lack of experience together as it does with a lack of talent. Wiegert has shown he can be a good lineman.. Pitts has shown he can be a good lineman.. Wade was a good lineman in Miami.. and Wand looks pretty good as well. The only weakness may be McKinney. But the chances of us getting a better Center in the 3rd or 4th round are slim. We could get a good Center in those rounds and start GROOMING him to be our center, but he wont make an immediate impact.

Really the only thing our offense is lacking is a running game. And even that isnt too bad when we have a health Domanick Davis. So really.. the solution to our running game would PROBABLY be a workhorse RB that compares to DD in skill, but is more durable. Again, this is the kind of playmaker that you would spend a 1st or 2nd round pick on.

Then there is our pass rush. This is one case where I think depth is needed.. but only on the Dline. We need some young talent there pretty badly. But again, I think we would do better if we picked up a playmaking ILB or DT in the 1st round.. then spent a 3rd and/or 4th to get a lineman we can start grooming.

Anyway.. this post is kind of rambling on.. my point is.. I dont see how drafting 7 or 8 players and hoping we get a couple of good ones.. is a better route for us to take than drafting 3 to 5 players and getting at least one sure thing.

Sure, in theory, if we used all our draft picks and did no trading up, we could possibly fill ALL of these needs. But the chances of that actually happening are so slim that it isnt even worth considering. Why not get that one player that will SURELY make the difference in a key area.. then hope that the 2 or 3 leftover picks will fill your needs elsewhere.

Now in the case of the 49ers.. they are FAR from being CLOSE to contending.. I can understand why trading down and taking alot of players would be a good idea for them, because they need to do a "changing of the guard".. perhaps, in comparison to the BAD teams.. we are closer to the superbowl than some people realize?

SO, am I just totally looking at this the wrong way?

(P.S. this draft class seems to really be lacking in the areas we need help in.. so trading up may be our best bet if we want to have a good draft)

(P.P.S. where the hell does this post go? I thought maybe in the draft forum, but then that is for discussing this years draft prospects, and that isnt really what this is about. then i thought maybe the tailgate forum, but this isnt community news or about an event. So I put it here... even though it isnt really about what the Texans are currently doing. I dunno, if its in the wrong place can ya let me know before ya delete it so I can at least copy it and paste it into the right spot hate to have to retype this long arse thing hehe)
In an attempt to answer this there are several angles

1- Philosophy-some team always trade down and attempt to add picks. Some believe in attempting to draft specif players. some mix what they do. A few always stay at their position and draft right then. has a good report on different draft philosophies. BPA, need, bunch drafting, etc.
Casserly claims to draft BPA (best player available)

2-Team make-up- this often require a team to scout itself to see what type of players are needed. A team may have a ton of bodies at a position, but need to get a star player, or will have a star player will no depth, or have a star player who is getting older or near contract issues. All of these things matter.

3-Draft picks- where the team drafts also effects what they attempt to do. If you draft in the top 10 or so usually you want to draft certain positions and/or get someone who will start right now. the further down you draft will effect what they do. Also, if a team has bunches of picks they maybe more likely to move or trade for next year.

4-the talent pool-the quality of overall talent and at a specific position will effect the order. One thing to remember is that teams have their own boards and not the one that Kiper, ourlads, GBN, huddlereport, etc. use. these boards account for thier offense and defensive systems, injury risk, charcter risk etc. while this draft looks to be weak overall the players that are availble for some teams will love this draft because their type of player is in abundance.

5- Free Agency- A team may address a need in free agency instead of the draft. some of the above factors matter, but this goes into it also.

6- Caprrom-a team withoutproom may add tons of lower round draft choice in order to complete its roster or if a team has bunches of caproom it may move up to take higher picks.

7- Draft day trade-some times a team will get the offer they can't refuse and descide to move.

Grid, when a team chooses to trade up or down one, a couple or a combination of all these factors may weigh on the mind of GM. this long answer probably is as confusing as your orginal post, but i said i would attempt the answer.
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