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Old 12-21-2004   #1
texansfan88
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Join Date: Jul 2004
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Default Texans as the 6th wild card? Not unreasonable! check it out

A reminder of which teams to root for next week!

As you may know, the Texans aren't technically eliminated from the playoffs. Here is the scenario needed for the Texans to play in the post-season.

Week 16
Houston beats Jacksonville
Tennessee beats Denver
Pittsburgh beats Baltimore
San Francisco beats Buffalo

Week 17
Houston beats Cleveland
Miami beats Baltimore
Pittsburgh beats Buffalo
Oakland beats Jacksonville
Indianapolis beats Denver

If these games end with the above results then Houston, Jacksonville, Buffalo, Denver, and Baltimore would all be tied 8-8. The first tie-break is 1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. Of the five teams, only Houston and Jax are in the same division. Jacksonville is eliminated on head-to-head with Houston.

Down to HOU, DEN, BUF, and BAL.

The second tie-breaker is 2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.) This is not applicable as no team has beaten all other teams or lost to all other teams.

The third tie-breaker is 3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. Given the above results, at the end of the season the AFC winning percentage would be: Houston 7-5; Denver, Baltimore, and Buffalo 5-7. Houston would get the spot.

Kansas City and Cincinnati are also 6-8 right now, but it doesn't matter what they do. Even if either KC or Cincinnati were to win out, neither would beat Houston in the tie-breakers.

Cincinnati would lose out to Baltimore in the first tie-breaker 1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2.; they went 1-1 in the series, but Cincy is 2-4 in their division while Baltimore is 3-3.

If KC wins out, KC would beat Denver in the first tiebreaker 1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2.; they split the season series, but KC would have a better division record (4-2) to Denver (3-3).

Replaying the above scenario with KC instead of Denver gets the following:

Between HOU, KC, BUF, and BAL there were no sweeps, so it would go to the third tie-breaker: 3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. Given the above results, at the end of the season the AFC winning percentage would be: Houston and Kansas City 7-5; Baltimore, and Buffalo 5-7. Baltimore and Buffalo would be eliminated. Then the tie-breaks would start over between Houston and KC.

Tiebreak 1 does not apply as they are in different divisions. Houston wins on tiebreak two: 2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.) Because Houston was 1-0 against KC in the regular season, Houston would get the playoff spot.


Thanks to worgl for this work
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