Originally Posted by TheOgre
I don't think that is correct. I don't see where KC or Cincy effects our playoff chances.
Lets assume that Baltimore, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Denver and Houston are all tied at 8-8.
3+ way Tiebreakers
a. Did anyone sweep all of the teams in the tiebreaker? No
b. Did anyone lose to all of the teams in the tiebreaker (eliminating themselves in the process)? No
Houston 8-8 7-5
Balt. 8-8 5-7
Buffalo 8-8 5-7
Denver 8-8 5-7
Jack. 8-8 5-7
KC 8-8 7-5
Cinci 8-8 4-8
If KC loses a game, then we have the best conference record and would advance. If KC wins both games, then we would check tiebreakers with KC (since both are 7-5 in the conference) to determine who would advance. Since we beat them, we would go.
It is my understanding that we need Balt., Buffalo, Denver, and Jacksonville to lose them all and for us to win out.
KC doesn't need to win out, however if they did we would still be in because the 1st tie-breaker with multiple teams for a wild card is Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2.
First division tie-breaker is Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
Houston would eliminate Jags because they would have swept them. KC would eliminate Denver on better division record.
Now we have Buffalo, Baltimore, Houston, and KC. 2nd tie-breaker 3 or more teams for wild card is Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
Hoston didn't play Buffalo or Baltimore. This step does not apply. Step 3 is Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Houston and KC would both be 7-5 elimminating Buffalo and Baltimore, both 5-7. Now the tie-breaker reverts to the 2 team formula. 1st tiebreaker is Head-to-head, if applicable
. Houston beats KC in week 3, Houston wins the wild card.
So.....my previous post is indeed incorrect. It doesn't matter what KC or Cincinnati does.
The TEXANS are in the playoffs if:
they win their remaining games
Baltimore, Buffalo, Denver, and Jacksonville ALL lose their remaining games.
Somebody else can figure out the odds of that happening.