I think you have to go with the Patriots until somebody beats them. They're solid on both sides of the ball and have excellent, skilled coaches.
I disagree about the Cowboys. I think the Parcells factor matters enough that they make the playoffs. I'm not so sure the Redskins will be so great, the Giants are rebuilding and look to have to have a rookie QB in there and the Eagles, while very good, seem to have problems getting to the SB.
Depends on team's injuries of course too. Everybody will be gunning for the Pats. Should be an interesting AFC this year.