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Old 06-03-2014   #1
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Default Overvalued? College Teammates and the Biggest Mistakes in the NFL Draft

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Overvalued? College Teammates and the Biggest Mistakes in the NFL Draft
Quote:
In general, does having better college teammates cause QBs like Manziel to be overvalued in the draft? Or, do better QBs cause their college teammates to be overdrafted?

To check these ideas out, I compared how draft picks performed in their first five years (according to PFR’s Approximate Value) relative to their expected value given their draft position.2 I then compared performance relative to expectation for players who had the benefit of teammates who were drafted in the first round to those who weren’t so lucky.

The results are certainly not what I expected: by the end of this post, it might be Bucs fans who worry the most that they overvalued a high pick in the 2014 draft...

Overvalued? College Teammates and the Biggest Mistakes in the NFL Draft, Part 2
Quote:
Today, I look at running backs drafted since 1984. I use a slightly different way of looking at the data that I think is a little better. I also revisit the QBs and WR/TEs with that method.

Instead of considering the number of first-round college teammates that a player has, I consider the total draft value of college teammates at different positions, as determined by Chase’s chart. Going this way makes it possible to look at the entire offensive line’s value, for example, rather than just the number of players who were high picks...
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