Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck
Now. With that said.
What are we trying to measure here?
Are we trying to figure out which of these Pundits is able to accurately assess how the teams are going to assess and draft? Or are we trying to figure out how accurately these Pundits assess talent?
I'd be interested to take a look at the guys Mayock/Kiper/McShay rated highly vs. those players' actual production. Because just because they don't get who's going to pick whom where correctly doesn't necessarily mean that they missed on their assessment of which guys are talented.
I was looking at WRs a few years ago and comparing where they were drafted to where they were mocked and what I found is that the "draft experts" identified the guys who were going to be drafted but they didn't identify WHERE those guys were going to be drafted... and that for the most part, the NFL teams drafted guys in more of the order that they were productive than the "experts" did. Of course, that could be because the teams drafted the guys higher and gave them more chances to be productive.
I don't really have an answer for you, but from my observation, they release their mock drafts with most of the effort being focused on who will be taken at what spot. However, most of the time, they sort of advocate the pick by talking up the qualities of the player. It's not that often that you see a pundit predict a player taken at a spot and then say "this is a round or two too early, but I think they'll do it". Occasionally you'll see that, or even an outright "do not like" comment in the prediction, but it seems like most of the time, a prediction is accompanied by a general comment on the players qualities.
So to my mind, they are advocating most of those picks unless specified otherwise.