Originally Posted by Dutchrudder
I still wouldn't take Russell Wilson for a high 1st in this year's draft. If we are talking about draft value, what sort of pick would a QB desperate team give up for Wilson?
Would the Browns give up 4? Nope. 26? Maybe... 35? Much more likely.
Would Oakland give up 5? Don't think so. 37? Sure.
Texans 2-1 would be the most I think they would pay for it.
The Cardinals would probably give up their 1st for him, but partially because that would mean the Seahawks would need a new QB...
I really don't see Wilson as being worth a top 15 pick, even today. He's an excellent game manager, but you have to have a really good defense and running game to go with him. He can do alright with an average o-line due to his pocket presence and mobility, which allows the team to invest more heavily into other areas. That's a big positive, and as long as he stays cheap, he's well worth the investment.
I think it will be very telling in 2 years when Wilson's contract is up for negotiation. I really wonder if the Seahawks will look to draft a replacement for him this year or next, because I think his pricetag will far outweigh his value. If they have a cheap backup plan in place (like a Garrapolo, Murray, Smith, etc) I think they might just trade him or let him walk. He's going to want probably 12 million a year, and I don't think he will be worth it at that point.
I see the point you're trying to make, but i think you're underrating him a little too much here. If it wasn't for his defense giving up 30 pts, He most certainly would've had the Seahawks in the NFC championship game his rookie year. Kid put in a damn fine effort against ATL too with nearly 400 yds passing, 60 yds rushing & 3 total TD's...& he did that as a rookie with no true #1 WR to speak of.
The thing that people miss with this kid is his poise. There's simply not a metric to measure that. He's never too high, never too low..never seems to be out of control... he's just unflappable no matter the situation. Coming out of college that was his #1 elite trait that i saw immediately...Like Luck he had it in spades. & that more than anything is what makes a qb great imo.
It's also what allows him to buck the sophomore slump trend that pretty much every other rookie qb has once teams get tape on them.