Re: Texan's 7 round draft w/ Cleveland trade
I'm wasting too much time on football this weekend, trying to analyze potential trades.
The Rams, at #2, don't need a QB but need OL. They are likely to trade back a few spots and still have their choice of several elite prospects. But who would be likely to trade up?
Unfortunately, Cleveland is one. They want Manziel, but would settle for Bridgewater. This trade would insure them of getting one or the other. So why trade with the Texans?
Minnesota, sitting at #8, needs a QB. But to trade up so many spots would cost too much. They are more likely to sit tight and draft defense if a QB doesn't fall to them.
That leaves Oakland as a franchise needing a QB. They could sit tight and pick up Californian Derek Carr. But I can see Manziel fitting perfectly into Oakland and the Californian scene. Could they be a likely trade partner for the Texans, stealing Manziel away from Cleveland?
So what would we get from such a trade? It would take their #2 and their #3; so we would get #5, #36 and #67.
But they could pull the same trade with the Rams, leaving Cleveland at #4. And what about the Jags, sitting at #3? They need a QB to either replace or push Gabbert, but do they need to take one at this spot? They also need a DE and here they are sitting perfect for Clowney. So QB or Clowney? That's the question running through the Cleveland organization.
With the likelihood of St Louis trading back, to insure themselves of getting one of the top three QB's, Cleveland has to think to themselves that they have to trade up. But I think Badboy is probably right. In my trade scenario I'm asking too much. I'm thinking a more realistic price is in keeping with something similar to what Oakland would offer, and that is, Cleveland's #2 and their #3 might entice them into pulling the deal with the Texans. We would end up with picks #4, #35 and #71.
If the Texans manage a trade, either with Cleveland or Oakland, or someone else, what we get in return will be along these lines.
What goes against the Texans though is history. A trade for the #1 pick is seldom pulled off. But I'm going to have to adjust this draft to reflect this more realistic trade value. And I'll have to also come up with a draft to reflect a much more probable no-trade situation.
PS There's one other trade possibility, and that is, Atlanta trading up to take Clowney. They need OL help and they could sit tight for this need. But they also need a DE. We need Clowney to just just blow everyone away with his workout. And he say's he's going to do exactly that.