Originally Posted by Texian
The general Rule of Thumb and Conventional Wisdom for many many years is the first pick in the draft is worth (3) first round draft picks. The new CBA only makes that more attractive. That said, there are years the draft is void of top talent the #1 pick is not worth trading for.
You capitalize them like they are chapters in the NFL GM and Owners handbook or something, when in reality there is really no rule of thumb for trading the first overall pick because in the modern era is has effectively only happened twice.
The Eli Manning trade where essentially the Chargers traded their first overall pick in 2004 for the Giants 5th overall and 65th overall in 2004, and also their 1st and 5th rounders in 2005. Keep in mind Eli was a consensus first overall pick, more of a sure thing than any of the guys in this draft, plus the Manning's made it known that Eli would not being playing in San Diego. This trade was made after the picks were already made so it's not exactly the situation we are in there...
The second instance is from 2001 where the Chargers traded their first overall for the Falcons 1st and 5th rounders in 2001.
So no, there is no rule of thumb for trading the first overall pick and expecting "3 first rounders" or the "4 , 26 , 68 & next years #1" is crazy.