Originally Posted by dalemurphy
The 1st draft pick has never been as valuable as it is this year, IMO. Disregarding the talent pool, factoring all other known variables, this is a GREAT year to have the top pick. Here's why:
1. New CBA, which severely restrains rookie contracts... Not only will the Texans have an opportunity to grab the top talent entering the NFL, but they can control that player at a very reasonable cap hit for the next five years. Also, because of the lower contract, they may choose a player at any position (other than K,P, FB, or C) without overpaying for an NFL position... Before the new CBA, the amount of money given to the top pick limited the choice to: QB, LT, Pass rusher. No longer is that the case.
2. 3 Day Draft- Now that the draft is spread over 3 days, the Texans will be perched as the first pick, with 24 hours to field offers and review their board, not only for the 1st and 4th rounds, but also for the 1st pick of round two.
3. Quicker draft clock between picks- further makes the 1st pick of rounds 2 and 4 more valuable because of their opportunity to deliberate and also their opportunity to field potential trade offers.
** The Texans need to either lose at Tennessee next week or Washington must win at NYGiants for the Texans to get this scenario... However, even if the Redskins and Texans tie, the Texans will be in a great position. Though they will lose out on 1.1, they will still own picks 2.1 and probably 4.1 (depending on Atlanta) due to the manner by which the NFL rotates picks with teams with equal records.
I realize I am basically dressing up a terd in a tuxedo, but this is what I am left to be excited about as a Texan fan this year.
Atlanta already has four wins. We cannot finish with 4 wins. The "best" we can do is 3 wins and tie with one other team, Washington. In that scenario, Houston and Washington (St. Louis 1st round) will alternate the first pick in each successive round. So we would get 2.1, 4.1, & 6.1.
If we lose to Tenn next week, we will be the only 2-win team, so we will have the first pick in every round. So to boil that down, no matter what, we will select first in the second, fourth, and sixth rounds. We can also pick first in the first, third, fifth, and seventh rounds by losing, otherwise we will pick second in those four rounds.