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Old 12-22-2013   #17
dalemurphy
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

Quote:
Originally Posted by Texecutioner View Post
Uuuumm no it isn't the most valuable than it's ever been before. That is something you made up because you are excited that the Texans have the first pick, but it's a ton of talented guys just like any season. I haven't heard hardly any experts describe this draft as one of the best ever either. They usually say that when there are two or three top QB's that could all be potential #1 types of picks.
You are missing my point.

I am speaking of the institutional positioning of the first pick now vs. the institutional positioning prior to 2011. I realize that, at this point, there is no consensus #1 everyone is clamoring for.

I happen to think some of that is simply noise by the media to ramp up interest in coverage, etc... and the information often does not accurately reveal the subjective view of the real, NFL decision-makers that will actually determine the value of these draft choices. I think, with a few exceptions, NFL team draft grades are more varied and distinct from one another than we are led to believe... In other words, an honest poll of NFL GMs would indicate a large spread of draft grades and rankings, even among the top 10 players. From the Texan perspective in 2014, their only issue is whether there are a few NFL teams who covet that first pick (whatever their reasons may be)... and how much to the Texans, themselves, want the guy rated #1 on their list.

In the end, though, we do not (and will not) know how NFL teams value these players... We may have some idea, but those conclusions are based on conjecture, leaked information without a named source, and a lot of misinformation by those same, anonymous people...

So, dealing with what we know for certain regarding the value of the first pick:

1. it will be more valued than before 2011 because of the significantly lower financial commitment.

2. the lower financial commitment broadens the range of player positions that can be selected with that pick.

3. The extension of the draft weekend into 3 days will enable the Texans to field offers for pick #33 for almost 24 hours instead of only 10 minutes- also, they can reorder their board and build a 2nd day strategy around that, and around prospective trades... All of that is objectively true. And, as was true in previous years, they will have that opportunity on the final day of the draft (4th round pick), which is also a good thing.
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