Originally Posted by Marcus
It's just our luck we'd pick the year when nobody is worth that first pick.
So, "disregarding the talent pool" is just about right
That is thinking based on the previous system. Until the 2011 CBA, the cost was so steep for a 1st round pick as the pick approached #1 overall that a top pick was only seen as a good thing to have in a year when there was one or two clear, top players... The difference between pick #1 and pick #10 might total $20-$25 million over the course of a 5 year deal (that's $4-$5million per season on the cap).. No longer... Now the difference between #1 overall and #31 equals about $4 million per years.
So, in any year, it is the team's advantage at pick #1 to weigh any possible option- trading down, drafting any player available, negotiating with players before the draft, etc... and there is zero penalty because the cap number is reasonable and only slightly more expensive than the subsequent picks.
If you are correct, and there is no clear top choice, the Texans still get the opportunity to grab whatever player they most covet without any other franchise dictating their options... Also, they can weigh their prospective selection against various trade down options (which they will certainly receive)... some teams will undoubtedly covet a player enough to offer significant compensation for that top choice.
Again, beyond 1.1, the Texans will also have further advantages in the draft with picks 2.1 and 4.1- beyond simply picking higher than everyone else, though it is not lost on me how much disappointment it took to get into this position... yet, here we are.