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Old 12-18-2013   #53
The1ApplePie
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

Quote:
Originally Posted by WolverineFan View Post
It's not written anywhere. However, 75% of the starting QB's in the league were drafted in the 1st round. Now, can you find guys in other rounds? Sure. But the odds are against you.

I went through the numbers in a different thread last week. The odds of finding a franchise QB are astronomically higher in the 1st round and they get even better the higher you go up the draft order. Despite the bust rate being very high, it's still much lower than the bust rate for QB's drafted outside the 1st.

People love to point out Brees or Wilson, which is fine, but let's not act like that's the norm. It is a rare occurrence. For the most part, if you want a starting QB, you're using your 1st round pick to get him.

With all that said, I do agree with you about BPA. We should not take a QB just because he's a QB. He should be the best player. Taking a QB just because he's a QB will only add to that bust rate.
Guys like Kaepernick and Wilson were taken later, but were seen as developmental prospects at the time. Kaep sat on the bench his first year, as Wilson was supposed to do, before it turned out Flynn sucked.

Romo was undrafted, Brady was a 6th rounder. Both were expected to ride the bench, maybe develop, maybe not. But history dictates that a good QB has to come in the first round, usually high.

There isn't an NFL starting QB on the roster right now. Does the fanbase really want to ride out 2014 with two great OTs and Josh Freeman, Mark Sanchez, McCown, or Sam Bradford at QB?
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