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Old 12-17-2013   #11
CharloTex
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Default Re: The 2014 NFL draft order

Quote:
Originally Posted by Trap_Star View Post
As of today we're guaranteed a top 7 pick. lose sunday, guaranteed top 2, but if WAS wins we clinch the #1 pick.

looking at the winning percentages, we have 3rd hardest schedule to this point. KC has the easiest.
Yes, perhaps mathematically it is still possible that we could fall all the way to the 7th position, but not likely in the real world. Right now, Tampa Bay's opponents have won 4 more games then our opponents. Some of the Texan's and Buc's opponents are common, but 11 are not. And one would think that 11 is a significant number, especially over two weeks. That would be 22 opportunities times 2 (them and us) equals 44, to narrow the 4 game gap.

But not so fast, for two reasons. First, if we were to win two weeks in a row in order to move up and tie Tampa Bay, that would reduce our opponent's winning percentage (by -3 games over 256 games). Also, if TB loses for two weeks so we can catch up to them, that would increase their opponent's winning percentage (+2 games over 256 - one game is against common opp. St. Louis). So that's 9 games to overcome right there (4 existing + 3 + 2).

Secondly, with many of the last two week's games being played amongst divisional opponents, both our opponents and TB's opponents have little opportunity as a collection to change the overall winning percentage, because one will win, and the other will lose, resulting in a wash.

So with all that in mind, in order to make up 9 games in two weeks, let's say that each team will make up 4.5 to meet in the middle. In order for the opponents to clear 4 to 5 games out of 22 played, no more than about 16 games can wash each other out, 8 per week. Most of those 8 games are washed out even before they are played, as the opponents are playing one another.

So even if it is mathematically possible, the planets would literally have to align in a perfectly straight line, including Pluto.

Last edited by CharloTex; 12-17-2013 at 03:34 PM.
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