Originally Posted by WolverineFan
Why would a 1st next year be treated as a mid-2nd round pick and why would a 1st in two years be treated as a mid-3rd? Sure it's not in the same draft, but it's still a 1st round pick. Why is the value of it significantly worse?
Two halves to the answer.
The rule of thumb on valuing future draft picks was made up by Jimmy Johnson and the other developers and early users of the chart. The principle is common sense, a 1st now is worth more than next year just like $5 would be. So you could haggle over how much but that's the rule of thumb.
Mid round was me simply because I think draft order on teams at the extremes in the draft order changes a lot year to year. So if I am evaluating #6 this year's future picks I am not going to assume they will be that high next year in considering the future picks. By the same token I wouldn't assume say last year's 32nd pick was going to stay there and would assume it moves toward the middle as well. Again you could haggle over how much but for ease today I put it right in the middle. It doesn't change things much if you move them to #12 instead of #16.