Originally Posted by pamperofirpo
Amen! While he may not be a bust, this draft reminds me of the David Carr vs Julius Peppers decision. David Carr also put up great numbers in a ****ty conference, like Bridgewater. I'd take Clowney in Round 1, and then Derek Carr in Round 2 (and make him wear number 8...)
Good article on the high bust rate of 1st Round QBs from 2003 to 2012.
It's even worse if you go back to 2002 (Carr, Harrington, Patrick Ramsey).
The bust rate is higher for 1st round QB's because that's where teams are drafting starting Quarterbacks. 75% of the starting QB's in the NFL were drafted in the top 40 picks.
If 3 of 4 QB's drafted in the 1st round bust that's still a 25% success rate for those 1st round QB's.
Typically around 10 QB's get drafted after the top 40 picks and usually only 1 guy makes it at most. That's a 10% success rate at best.
Despite the high bust rate of QB's drafted in the 1st round, your odds of finding a franchise QB are still much higher in the 1st round than any other round.