That's a lot of "what ifs." I don't think you give an award out based on impossible to predict "what if" scenarios. That's much easier to do in the NFL, where people have much more similar schedules.
Regardless, it's not a consistent estimation.
You describe Petty as a system guy, "plug n' play" as you put it. You are aware that the system is extremely similar to what A&M is running. Briles at UH, Sumlin at UH. This exact same argument can be used against you. Strange that you'd bring that up.
Florida State had arguably a better team last year. The same guys were on the team, except they had multiple first rounders, and the most draft picks by a school on that team also. FSU found a way to lose multiple games, much of it due to EJ's safe style of quarterbacking and indecisiveness. It was part of my knock on him going into the NFL draft. From a performance standpoint, Winston has elevated the team to national title relevance. From a leadership standpoint, he has shown to be much more effective than EJ. The team plays with the type of perseverance that the previous 3 or 4 teams lacked, even though they were supremely talented. Again, a bad comparison considering last year's team is arguably more talented than this year's team. If you've watched Winston, you know that he does not play safely. You could argue that it is his biggest flaw. He consistently throws downfield and sometimes gets caught being greedy. His YPA is very high, higher than Manziel.
Hard to play the what if game with Oregon as they've had Mariota for some time now.
For the record, I don't think Winston will win the Heisman. It actually wouldn't surprise me to see him at 3rd, even 4th by end of year. Voters tend to favor raw stats (total TD, total yards) more than anything, and he just won't be able to compete.
I don't understand why people are acting like Mariota is out of it. I just posted his statistics. They are fantastic. He hasn't even thrown an interception all year. His team has one less loss than A&M and is honestly more relevant. They've also played an arguably tougher schedule to this point. I really don't understand why people would so quickly dismiss him, but prop up Manziel. It's not consistent.
Petty is going to surprise some people and may actually take the lead if Baylor dominates this gauntlet they are about to face at the end of the season.