Originally Posted by TheIronDuke
I'll take the under on 3 comp picks. The year before we only got 2 comp picks and we lost a lot more players and signed fewer. I also think Dutch projected 3-4 comp picks for the last draft where we got 2 as well, but I know it's all a guess as there's no formula that anyone actually knows.
Yeah, the difference was that last year we signed a couple guys to minimum deals, but gave them signing bonuses of 65k (Bradie James and Alan Ball). I rated them as not impacting the compensatory picks due to minimum salary, when in reality the NFL sees any signing bonus compensation as no longer being a minimum deal. The NFL counted them as 7ths, which is what took away 2 of the picks I projected. Now we know, and knowing is half the battle!
It's not an exact science, since we don't have the salary structure and rules from the NFL's secret formula, but we can get more accurate over time by using the previous year's numbers to project next year's. Snap counts can also figure into this, but it seems like things are OK so far. Alan Ball is starting at CB for Jax, Forsett is playing about 15% of the snaps for Jax, Donnie Jones is punting for Philly, Barwin and Quin are starters, James Casey is playing some offense and STs. So I'm pretty confident in these projections now, but it could change a little by the end of the year if someone loses their job.
You can check snap counts here: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/snapcounts