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Old 10-07-2013   #15
Doppelganger
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Default Re: Kevin Hogan from Stanford

Quote:
Originally Posted by badboy View Post
Would you be willing to post which will be available to Texans in first and second rounds? Let's use #23 & 55 just for grins. I have Bridgewater, Boyd, Hundley and Mariota (if they come out) gone by #23. I think if only one of Hundley, Mariota comes out, Manziel will be gone also and maybe regardless. I think Murray gone before our second. McCarron & Mettenberger should be avail #55 but may be at #87. AJ is currently ranked #91 and if so, would be a steal imo.
I think the best way to answer this question is to look at history as a way to help us understand the future.

First, lets put together an arbitrary ranking:

1. Ranking
Bridgewater
Hundley/Mariotta/Hogan
Manziel
Boyd
Murray
McCarron
Metzenberger
Morris

2. Second, we must define the question for statistical query

1. How many QBs have been taken before pick #23?
2. How many QBs have been taken before pick #55?

3. We must determine how we will answer the questions
I propose we use a simple mean and 10 years worth of data in order to prevent skewing from over or under representation.

2013: 1 by 23, 2 by 55
2012: 4 by 23, 4 by 55
2011: 4 by 23, 6 by 55
2010: 1 by 23, 2 by 55
2009: 3 by 23, 4 by 55
2008: 2 by 23, 2 by 55
2007: 2 by 23, 5 by 55
2006: 3 by 23, 4 by 55
2005: 3 by 23, 3 by 55
2004: 4 by 23, 4 by 55

By using this information, I have calculated a mean of

2.7 QBs by 23, 3.6 by 55

If we round those numbers, we are left with on average, 3 QBs taken by pick 23 and 4 taken by pick 55.

Lets take a look at that ranking again.

Ranking
Bridgewater
Hundley/Mariotta/Hogan
Manziel


Boyd

Murray
McCarron
Metzenberger
Morris

If we look at that list again, according to average drafting, if the Texans were picking at 23, Bridgewater, Manziel, and Hundley/Mariotta/Hogan(one will likely come out early) will be off the board. The Texans could elect to take Boyd at 22 or opt for Murray, McCarron, Metzenberger, or Morris in the second.

We can reset our numbers, depending on where Houston is picking as the season continues and certainly once the draft order is official.
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