Originally Posted by Stemp
No way. Going through the SEC west and beating LSU would give them enough of a boost to get ranked #2 should other teams lose a game.
Louisville plays no one on their schedule so if they drop one they are out. They might even be on the outside looking in if they go undefeated, depending on how things play out.
Ohio St played Cal and won but Cal is not good this year, having lost to Northwestern and they may not be bowl eligible.
Oregon may be the only other one loss team to make it in, but I still think the fact that A&M will have only lost to the #1 team by a touchdown will put them in the game.
I think you are underestimating the importance of a conference championship game. I could see a one loss Ohio State team that barely loses to Michigan in Ann Arbor but rebounds to beat them in the Big 10 Championship game making it over A&M. Oregon is another one that you mentioned. I also think Louiisville's Sugar Bowl performance would swing opinion in their favor if they go undefeated.
I'm not sure how the tiebreakers work in the SEC but perhaps A&M's best bet (obviously assuming they go undefeated the rest of the way themselves) may be if LSU beats Bama and have all of them finish with 1 division loss. Is there a chance A&M goes to the SEC Championship in a three way tie? Or do they need LSU and Bama to both lose to Georgia/S Carolina/Florida?