Originally Posted by Texian
In 2015 the year of JJs new contract Schaub is $17 mil and the yr after $19 mil
People seem to forget (or never realized) that it's entirely possible (perhaps even likely) that 2015 won't be the year of JJs new contract - and not because he gets extended early.
JJ was a first round pick in the first draft class under the current CBA. More importantly, JJ was the 11th pick in the first draft class under the current CBA. Without getting mired in the details, as a component of that CBA, the Texans have a unilateral, non-negotiable option for a 5th year with JJ. This option exists with all first round picks under the current CBA. The amount of the option for the top 10 picks is the Transition tag amount (Essentially, the average of the top 10 highest paid players at their position during their 4th year). For picks 11-32, it's considerably less than that (Essentially, it's the average of the 3rd thru 25th highest paid players at their position during their 4th year), and the CBA is very specific that it can't be supplemented with bonuses or any other type of compensation. To give a little perspective to this, according to Spottrac, for 2013, the average of the 3rd-11th (they only list the top 10 and ties) highest paid DE's is $7.43 Million, so factor in 14 more lower paid players and imagine what you'll get.
What this means is that should they decide to do it, the Texans have JJ for a fifth year at an amount likely south of $6 Million. Add on the fact that they'll still have the right to franchise him for 2016, and with the 2013 Franchise and Transition tag amounts for DE's at roughly $11.2 and $9.15 Million respectively, plus a minimal growth for those tag amounts recently, and it could easily be 2017 before JJ sees either a contract amount in excess of $12 Million or the open market.
I'm sure some of you are saying that's screwing JJ, and McNair and the Texans would never let that happen, well, I'm sure the preference would be to strike a long term deal at a reasonable amount sometime in the offseason between JJ's 3rd and 4th contract year. If that can't be done, and the alternative is to let JJ walk, there's no doubt in my mind the Texans would "screw" JJ.
Now excuse me - I've got to go fret that in five years, JJ might be playing for someone else.