Between this post and the current one below you pretty much have my fantasy football manifesto. If you see something disagreeable I encourage you to correct a flawed method I might have...
Originally Posted by powda
1. Look for trends. As an example marc tresmans bears offense is going to pass a lot more then last year. Are you losing points on the bench? Is one of your players getting a steady decline in carries. Identify trends as they happen...not after 2-3 losses.
2. Play matchups. Are you starting a rb vs. the 49ers defense this week? Is that wise?
3. Let your superstars be superstars. Contrary to my suggestion in #2 you should have a couple of good players. I dont play matchups with them. As an example I have Arian Foster and despite all the negativety surrounding him he will start for me until he proves he's a liability. Play superstars but play matchups for your average talent.
4. Stay informed. Information is a commodity. Are you starting players who are suspended/ injured/ on bye weeks? Dont lose games in your league because of juvenile mistakes.
5. Understand your waiver system. Are you better off maintaining your waiver priority over other players in your league? Every year good players get cut because other owners make mistakes. When the bye weeks start some owners will be forced to cut quality players. Are you first in your waiver priority to snatch that player up? 2 years ago in one of my leagues Frank Gore was cut by an impulsive owner because of a false injury report. I picked him up and he was helpful in getting me to the 2nd round of the playoffs.
6. Orchestrate a trade! There are usually a handful of naive owners in every league. Their loss is your gain. You might be surprised at what you can get if you just try.
7. Talent and opportunity normally equal production. Mark Ingram hasn't done much yet because he doesn't get many opportunities. Jonathan Stewart is a fantastic talent but he has to share opportunities. Those types aren't going to help you much if your stuck with a bad roster. I'm a fan of the nfl draft and because of it i'm a bit more informed on the newest nfl talent (over the guys in my league.) A couple of years back in their rookie seasons my last 2 picks in a 17 round draft were aj green and julio jones. Both guys had great rookie seasons because they had talent and opportunity. At the time people actually criticized me for those picks. Looks pretty damn smart now doesn't it?
8. You cant control how many points your opponent scores against you. Your really not competing against him so much anyway. Your competing with your roster and the talent you have available. If I lose, I lose, but I dont want to leave points on the bench.
I cant tell you when to cut bait on a player because my success/failure rate is about 50/50.Quite often a season opening roster and season ending roster look drastically different so a bad draft is not the end of the world. I hope some of my suggestions are helpful. Good luck.
I take note of why and how certain owners do well every year. If you look at your league history over the years you'll find a core group of owners always make the playoffs. Your season goals imo should be:
A. Aquire the best talent possible.
B. Manage that talent in the best possible fashion.
C. Make the playoffs.
Once your in the playoffs anything can happen. The law of averages stops working in your favor. Winner take all.
Here's what you can control
Waiver priority (sometimes)
Waiver acquisitions (sometimes)
(bye week management, depth, cuts, etc..)
What you know
-(information is a priority. Owners who do the most research USUALLY get the best results. Information plays into all of the above factors as well. Don't be the last person in your league to know your qb is out for the season.)
What you can't control:
(my draft last year was fantastic and every one in my league complimented me on having the strongest draft. 6 weeks into the season my draft didnt mean **** because of injuries. By seasons end my starters missed a total of 36 games. It was so bad I changed my team name to "mash". Having good depth was something I could control, but ultimately it just wasnt enough to overcome my injuries.)
in a 12 team league you play every owner at least once. Sometimes you play good owners twice, sometimes you play bad owners twice. It is what it is and there's nothing you can do about it.
Points scored against you:
A guy I play in a league with always fields a good team and always does his research (probably more then the rest of us.) However, last year he was snake bit. It seemed everyone had career games against him. He scored a lot of points himself and overall his team had the 3rd highest point total. It just wasn't enough when opposing teams scored the highest point total against him by a margin of several HUNDRED points.
In addition to what you can and can't control I want to throw an abstract concept out there for you guys and see if you give it any credence...
In one of my leagues the champion over the last 2 years is the same owner. He has solid drafts like others, he makes solid waiver additions like others, he doesn't make mistakes like others, and he capitalizes on the mistakes of other owners like others. He's been fortunate not to be snake bit by injuries/schedule/points scored against him. I'd almost argue his timing
is better then others. Perhaps he was identifying trends faster then others?
As an example, Greg jennings was on my team last year and ofcourse he got injured (mash remember?) I then had a need for new talent and picked up James Jones. For 2 weeks jones did nothing and contributed to a close season loss I had. I was now in a bind, bye weeks and roster depth due to injuries were about to kill me at the wr position and I had to cut bait on unproductive talent to get something better then goose eggs. I cut james jones in favor of someone else. Jones was picked up by the 2 time champ and starting that week he went off to score 14 total season td's. What the f*ck? I identified talent that eventually paid off, for someone else. My timing
sucked and the champ's was spot on. How do you fix that? You could make a reasonable argument that poor depth or roster management on my part contributed to the problem and i'd agree. But his timing
is on far more then the percentages suggest it should be. Is it dumb luck or skill?
All in all my opinions are my own and I have no more credibility in fantasy football then anyone else. I hope if you agree or disagree with this post and others in this thread you'll give some feedback. I dont mind being corrected or wrong if it means I learn something new or if it means I kick the 2 time champs azz. Good luck all and I appreciate any response.