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Old 09-01-2013   #5
thunderkyss 
& so it begins
 
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Default Re: 2012 Football Outsiders QBR

Now a little more about QBR
Quote:
The Total Quarterback Rating is a statistical measure that incorporates the contexts and details of those throws and what they mean for wins. It's built from the team level down to the quarterback, where we understand first what each play means to the team, then give credit to the quarterback for what happened on that play based on what he contributed.
Quote:
The goal behind any player rating should be determining how much a player contributes to a win. We went back through 10 years of NFL play-by-play data to look at game situation (down, distance, yard line, clock time, timeouts, home field, field surface and score), along with the ultimate outcome of the game, to develop a win probability function.
Quote:
The final major step is to look at how "clutch" the situation was when creating expected points. A normal play has a clutch index of 1.0. For instance, first-and-goal from the 10-yard line in a tie game at the start of the second quarter has a clutch index of almost exactly 1.0. A more clutch situation, one late in the game when the game is close -- the same situation as above but midway through the fourth quarter, for example -- has a clutch index of about 2.0. Maximum clutch indices are about 3.0, and minimum indices are about 0.3.
RK PLAYER TOTAL QBR
1 Peyton Manning, DEN 84.1
2 Tom Brady, NE 77.1
3 Colin Kaepernick, SF 76.8
4 Matt Ryan, ATL 74.5
5 Aaron Rodgers, GB 72.5
6 Robert Griffin III, WSH 71.4
7 Alex Smith, SF 70.1
8 Russell Wilson, SEA 69.6
9 Drew Brees, NO 67.9
10 Eli Manning, NYG 67.4
RK PLAYER TOTAL QBR
11 Andrew Luck, IND 65
12 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT 62.8
13 Tony Romo, DAL 62.7
14 Matt Schaub, HOU 62.6
15 Matthew Stafford, DET 58.9
16 Cam Newton, CAR 54.2
17 Christian Ponder, MIN 53.8
18 Josh Freeman, TB 53.1
19 Ryan Tannehill, MIA 52.3
20 Jay Cutler, CHI 51.9
RK PLAYER TOTAL QBR
21 Sam Bradford, STL 51.6
22 Andy Dalton, CIN 50.7
23 Matt Hasselbeck, TEN 48.5
24 Jake Locker, TEN 48.1
25 Joe Flacco, BAL 46.8
26 Michael Vick, PHI 46
27 Ryan Fitzpatrick, BUF 45.8
28 Nick Foles, PHI 45.3
29 Carson Palmer, OAK 44.7
30 Blaine Gabbert, JAC 40.9
RK PLAYER TOTAL QBR
31 Philip Rivers, SD 40.6
32 Matt Cassel, KC 36.5
33 Chad Henne, JAC 29.9
34 Brady Quinn, KC 27.4
35 Brandon Weeden, CLE 26.6
36 Mark Sanchez, NYJ 23.4

Again, the tops & bottoms are generally the same. Their exact placements are a bit off. We may draw our lines at different spots, but definite tiers can be identified.
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