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Old 09-01-2013   #4
thunderkyss 
& so it begins
 
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Default Re: 2012 Football Outsiders QBR

Let's look at ESPN's Total QBR
First you've got to understand Expected Points Added (EPA)
Quote:
Based on statistical analysis of 10 years of NFL play-by-play data, ESPN has created a formula that assigns an "expected points" value to the team with the ball at the start of each play based on the game situation. Expected points (EP) accounts for factors such as down, distance to go, field position, home-field advantage and time remaining.

The benefit of having this EP value at the start of each play is that it can be used to measure the success of that play by comparing it to the EP value at the start of the next play. Good offensive plays such as first downs generally increase EP; losses or incomplete passes generally decrease it. This difference in EP from one play to the next is called expected points added (EPA). Because of all it accounts for and its points scale, EPA is a very accurate measure of how each play affects potential changes on the scoreboard.
According to EPA
Quote:
RK PLAYER TOTAL EPA
1 Peyton Manning, DEN 116.8
2 Matt Ryan, ATL 114.4
3 Tom Brady, NE 109.2
4 Aaron Rodgers, GB 102.9
5 Tony Romo, DAL 91.5
6 Andrew Luck, IND 89.5
7 Russell Wilson, SEA 88.2
8 Drew Brees, NO 86.4
9 Matthew Stafford, DET 82.4
10 Robert Griffin III, WSH 80.1
RK PLAYER TOTAL EPA
11 Eli Manning, NYG 71.5
12 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT 69.4
13 Matt Schaub, HOU 61.1
14 Cam Newton, CAR 55.8
15 Sam Bradford, STL 51.3
16 Josh Freeman, TB 50.2
17 Andy Dalton, CIN 48.5
18 Colin Kaepernick, SF 46.4
19 Ryan Tannehill, MIA 46.2
20 Joe Flacco, BAL 39.7
RK PLAYER TOTAL EPA
21 Christian Ponder, MIN 38.9
22 Jay Cutler, CHI 37
23 Alex Smith, SF 34.5
24 Carson Palmer, OAK 30.3
25 Ryan Fitzpatrick, BUF 30
26 Michael Vick, PHI 25.9
27 Philip Rivers, SD 23.1
28 Jake Locker, TEN 22.6
29 Nick Foles, PHI 17.7
30 Matt Hasselbeck, TEN 14.6
RK PLAYER TOTAL EPA
31 Blaine Gabbert, JAC 13.1
32 Matt Cassel, KC 7.1
33 Chad Henne, JAC 0.1
34 Brady Quinn, KC -2.3
35 Brandon Weeden, CLE -8
36 Mark Sanchez, NYJ -13.7
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