Originally Posted by eriadoc
Only if you accept the assumption that the scouting is done properly. Plenty of elite talent has fallen through the cracks. Foster is a perfect example. He's one of the three or four best RBs in the NFL (2nd, in my book), but he wasn't drafted for reasons that were not related to talent.
Hence the "by and large" part of my post. Generally speaking, those drafted in the first are more talented than those drafted in the second, who are in turn more talented than those taken in the 3rd, etc. Certainly scouting is not perfect- there are too many variables. Take a random UDFA QB out of a list and a random 1st round QB, and see which one you want. Odds are, it will be the 1st rounder.