Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck
That was a cool read.
I think the Colts were a bit of an outlier from that perspective.
I think the Colts were a good team that tanked (perhaps on purpose.) So they weren't as bad as that 2-14 mark would indicate so their rebound to 11-5 wasn't as drastic as it appears on the surface.
And like I said, when you look at the point differential, most of that comes from a single game. So the size of that point differential appears to be a bit of an anomaly as well.
The point about their record in close games probably returning to the mean is good, though. So they probably will regress a little bit. Hopefully.
I agree for the most part, but if you look at their overall PF/PA even without the 3 blowout losses for a combined 81 points, they align to be a theoretical 7-6 team. They don't win those close games this year against an NFC west division that is even more improved from last year.
Just like with Chicago last year with Takeaways, eventually the numbers average back out. Their first 7 games they had an astronomical amount of takeaways, the last 9 they came back to earth. Just as Indy caught lightning in a bottle at certain points in the season, trends always average back out. I don't see Indy losing more than 7 games, but don't see them winning more than 10 either.
Also interesting was the part about the most interceptable passes being dropped by Andrew Luck's opponents. He forced a ton of throws in that offense. Wonder how the departure of Arians affects their offense with Pagano back and their proclaimed WCO taking place.
I can see them losing to Denver, Seattle, St. Louis, SF, Texans and Cincy. If we sweep both games against them (not likely) that's 7 losses... not unreasonable.
Just one man's opinion.