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Old 08-14-2013   #63
NastyNate
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Default Re: Who wins division?

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck View Post
I went through the records and here's what I came up with...

In the past 10 years, there's been no team that went 11-5 with a negative point differential. The best record you can find with a winning record and a negative point differential is 9-7.

2004 Jags -- 9-7 to 12-4
2004 Seahawks -- 9-7 to 13-3
2005 Vikings -- 9-7 to 6-10
2006 Seahawks -- 9-7 to 10-6
2008 Cowboys -- 9-7 to 11-5
2011 Giants -- 9-7 to 9-7

As you can see, there is one case where the record got worse and one case where the record remained the same but 4 cases where the record improved.

BUT. That's starting from 9-7.

BUT! Why did the Colts have such a bad point differential? Because they got CRUSHED by the Patriots, Jets and Bears... mostly the Patriots.

See I knew I misquoted it, but my train of thought was slowly picking up steam. Here is the article from grantland.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...-worthy-record



Quote:
That gap between their actual win total and the win total we would expect from their Pythagorean expectation — 3.8 wins — is enormous. It's the second-largest difference since 1989, with the largest difference coming from another version of this team. The 1992 Colts went 9-7 while being outscored by 86 points, producing a Pythagorean expectation of 5.0 wins and a difference of four full wins. The next year, they went 4-12. The 2013 Colts won't be that bad.


It's true that teams who greatly outstrip their Pythagorean expectation often decline the following season. There are only six other teams since 1989 that were more than three wins better than their Pythagorean expectation, and they declined by a combined 22 wins the following season, nearly four per team. If we expand the sample out to teams that were two wins better than their Pythagorean expectation, we get 33 teams, of which 21 declined and seven stagnated. In all, those 33 teams declined by an average of 2.4 wins the following year.
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