Thread: QB Projections
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Old 08-13-2013   #10
b0ng
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Default Re: QB Projections

Quote:
Originally Posted by SCOTTexans View Post
I will be drafting a QB later, I have been averaging the 5th rd. You can get Matt Ryan in weaker leagues but I have been drafting Wilson about 90% of the time in that round...
That seems really really high for Wilson, how many people per league?

My thing with QB's is, how much higher is their point output going be than the guys below them. With RB's this year in particular, the production falls off of a cliff once you get to like the second or third round due to all the RBBC going on in the NFL. So that means if you're taking a QB in rounds 1-3 you're going to miss out on getting two, or possibly even one true stud running back and that's going to hurt your overall production.

If you look at fantasy production overall at PFW you can see that QB's litter the top 20, and the difference between each is fairly marginal. With RB's the drop off is very sharp and after the top 10 or so guys (And remember, most leagues you have to start 2 RB's) you're scrambling with hopes and prayers.

I think if you guys are thinking about going early on QB's, you should look around at some fantasy statistics sites and see how they shook out last year:

Code:
Rank 	Fantasy Pts
1 	Drew Brees  331.07
2 	Aaron Rodgers  326.97
3 	Tom Brady 	316.10
4 	Cam Newton  312.67
5 	Robert Griffin  303.17
6 	Peyton Manning  292.90
7 	Matt Ryan 	289.40
8 	Andrew Luck  270.30
9 	Tony Romo 	 268.23
10 	Russell Wilson  267.83
Code:
Rank   Fantasy Points
1 	Adrian Peterson 	309.40
2 	Arian Foster 	264.10
3 	Doug Martin 	263.60
4 	Marshawn Lynch 	248.60
5 	Alfred Morris 	244.00
6 	Ray Rice 	  222.10
7 	C.J. Spiller 	215.30
8 	Jamaal Charles 	207.50
9 	Trent Richardson 	203.70
10 	Stevan Ridley 	201.40
11 	Frank Gore 	197.80
12 	Chris Johnson 	179.50
13 	Matt Forte 	178.40
14 	Reggie Bush 	173.80
15 	Shonn Greene 	168.40
16 	Steven Jackson 	162.30
17 	Ahmad Bradshaw  159.00
18 	Michael Turner 	157.80
19 	BenJarvus Green-Ellis 	153.80
20 	Mikel Leshoure 	152.20
As you can see it's much tougher finding that stud runningback and you really want to have about 3 of them that you can feel good about. Getting a QB who's going to give you solid output isn't as nearly as difficult to find as you might think it is, especially with most teams having 2 usually at most.

No matter what position I'm in, in the draft, I will smile for every QB, or WR that gets taken before me. I really think it'd do you well to think hard about which positions on your roster are going to be the most difficult to maximize your points, and this year with all of the passing and RBBC, finding those bellcow backs are going to be tough, and will propel your team a lot farther than most in your league.
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