Originally Posted by Brisco_County
One of the reasons Keenum didn't get drafted is because his hindered combine performance supported what scouts were already suspicious of. He had actually pulled a hamstring when trying to improve his 40 time, and the injury affected his throwing. He had a much better performance during his Pro Day workout, but no one was paying attention by then.
From what I've been reading, Keenum has ample momentum towards winning the #2 spot. Kubiak has indicated that both Case and Yates will be playing an increased number of snaps in preseason as part of the competition, so the opportunity for Case is a realistic one.
Concerning Yates' chances: First off, I'm not going to put too much weight on his disappointing performance last season since (according to the Texans Huddle podcast) he was affected by elbow tendonitis all season. I do knock him for lapses of situational awareness, like in the Vikings game. What I know at this time is that Zierlein said that TJ has not created enough distance between himself and Keenum to have an advantage. So apparently he's vulnerable.
Though this thread is about the #2 spot, John McClain's assertion that Keenum is being groomed as the QB of the future is not unrealistic. Kubiak has already said that he believes Keenum will be a starter in the NFL, but my belief on this is more related to cap management. Schaub has two years of guaranteed money left, and JJ Watt will be due a monster contract in two years. And this is after Cushing's huge contract extension. Some veterans will be cut, and if Case (or some X-factor acquisition) possesses anywhere near the effectiveness of Schaub, then Schaub is a cap casualty.
That's understandable, well thought out. But I think Kubiak understands there is a good chance we're going to see both of these QBs in 2013, in the event that Schaub gets hurt, so he needs both of them ready, which supports putting Keenum on the fast track. He doesn't want to put Keenum in the same situation Yates was in two years ago, thrown to the wolves with nothing but scout team reps (Yates didn't have any reps in our system other than what he had in camp before Lienart got here).
So I believe Kubiak looks at them as 2a & 2b. There's no real "competition" Yates will be the back up & Keenum will be ready to go if needed.
If Schaub gets hurt, Yates is going in. If Yates is ineffective, he will get pulled (something that was not an option 2 years ago). Then Keenum will get his chance.
If Schaub is out for an extended period of time, he may very well bounce back & forth between the two if neither shows themselves ready to be a starter.
In 2012, I'm sure Kubiak felt restricted because of his receiving options & their performance during real games. in 2013, it will be the same with the QBs. We'll see 100% of the play book with Schaub. I would assume we should expect to see 100% of the play book with Yates, & Gary is trying his damdest to get Keenum there as well.
But after that first game with Yates, in a real game situation, Kubiak will find out if Yates can or cannot handle 100% of the playbook. He should have a good feel for it since Yates has been in that situation before. At that time he probably ran 65% to 75% of the play book. & now Kubiak expects 80% before he pulls him. (I am totally making these numbers up).
So if Kubiak thinks 80% of the play book, plus Tj's ability to go off script is enough to win games with little risk, Tj will continue to play. If he thinks that 80% + offscript gives him a better shot at winning (because in this league, you need that off script ability) Matt Schaub will never see the field as our starter again.
If he thinks there's too much risk & Keenum can give us 100% of the play book, then he'll yank Yates & Keenum will start. Again, you don't know until you know, so expect that theoretical 100% number to come down once Keenum is in a real game that counts. Just like Tj's. Realistically Kubiak should be expecting 80% + off script ability. He's going to expect some mistakes, but not to see those mistakes again & again & again.
I think what we saw from Russel Wilson & Kaepernick was more like 70% of their offense plus a high off script ability & moderate risk. That got the Seahawks as far as we got & it got the 49ers to the Super Bowl.
All those numbers are made up, but I think it's the best way to describe my
thought process & I believe Kubiak would follow a similar process. The main thing I wanted to convey is that Yates already has a real life quantifiable grade (including play offs), where Keenum does not & I think it's going to be really difficult for Keenum to overcome that. It can happen, Russell Wilson did it Last year, but Flynn did not play as much or as well as Yates did so his grade wasn't really as solid.
I'm rooting for Keenum, but I'm also rooting for Tj as long as we get a guy that gives us a chance to go all the way, I don't care which. But it doesn't make sense to me, to throw out what you've already got with Yates for an unknown. Even Kaepernick would never have seen the field if Smith didn't get hurt & Stevie Wonder can see the difference between Smith & Kaepernick.