Re: Who wins division?
Voted Texans. It's the obvious choice. So since that was so boring, I'll make the case for the Texans to lose it, just for kicks.
Cushing doesn't come back 100% and as strong as everyone assumes. Injuries like that take time to recover, and he is just a step behind. Beside him, Sharpton/Reed/whoever they try at ILB is JAG, at best. Mercilus doesn't take that big step forward that so many seem to be counting on. The LB corps ends up no better than last year.
Ed Reed never suits up for the Texans, or if he does, he's not good. Brandon Harrison never comes around and everyone recognizes him for the bust he is. Kareem Jackson and JJo keep it together with Manning and Swearinger, but depth is an issue if any injuries pop up.
Antonio and JJ Watt continue their DL tag team on O-lines across the NFL, but the duo of Crick and Mitchell fares no better than the NT position over the last several years, so the defense up the middle continues to suffer. As a result, we get to watch Mitchell, Sharpton, and Ed Reed combine to miss tackles on guys like MJD.
Matt Schaub picks up where he left off in 2012. That's probably enough to tank the offense, but if the RT/RG combo helps him out like they did last year and they continue to avoid throwing the ball to Foster, it becomes a fairly one dimensional offense. The receiving corps ought to be better, so that will be good enough to beat the Dolphins and Bengals of the world, but not the Packers, 49ers, and Patriots type teams.
A real MVP contributes in all phases of the game.