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Old 06-24-2013   #16
keyser
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Default Re: What's real? PreDraft rankings

OK, I will say off the bat that I'm not a draft expert. And, I've heard all the arguments about a player's draft position being the "right" one by definition, regardless of anything said beforehand. There's one other factor, though, and it's one that gives more credence to the whole reach/value idea:

Lots of teams (all teams?) use services to provide draft grades. Not all teams use the same services (but there are only a couple of common ones, as I understand), and all teams augment those grades with the reviews by their own scouts and such. But, there really are some "standard" ratings of players out there that teams are generally going to be aware of. So, while a team might move a player up or down in their own mind, they're going to have some general feeling about how that player is viewed by other teams, as well.

A reach or value pick is really just a matter of how that player was drafted relative to where they would have been drafted by another team. If you are the only team with a player rated highly, then it's still a reach to draft that player early, even if the player ends up being great. For example, drafting Tom Brady in Round 1 would have a major reach, even though it turned out to be where he would have been drafted, in retrospect.

So, given that there are some common "base" ratings for players (that teams will tend to move up/down, but starting from that point), I think that gives more basis for calling players reaches/values than people sometimes admit.
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