Originally Posted by EVOLVIST
Except, Steph, that in your blog you cited that Earl Mitchell was ranked the 47th best DT in the NFL, with only 3 starts and spot duty in 2012. That’s 31 tackles for Mitchell in 2012 to Cody’s 17 tackles in 12 starts. I wouldn’t call that Mitchell’s writing-on-the-wall; still, as an adjective, “encouraging” would be my pick of the litter.
The stats don’t make Mitchell an all-pro baller. Indeed, they might be more an indictment on Cody’s play when we boil it to bone. Maybe. See, it’s difficult to make projections, yet with Mitchell I ran the ticker and I was surprised at what a quiet little bruiser he’s been as a non-starter. To wit:
Earl Mitchell - Career stats - 86 tackles - 2 sacks - 1FF – 4 Pdef. 3 Seasons – 3 starts
Shuan Cody - Career stats - 190 tackles - 3 sacks - 2 FFs – 9Pdef. 8 Seasons – 68 starts
What I’m missing is TFL stats; nevertheless, I would call Mitchell an upgrade, and if we deem him an upgrade, by inference, I would say he’s at least “encouraging” going into 2013.
I know it’s goofy; moreover, I hated the Mitchell pick at #81 when we could have had Geno Atkins at #120; yet, just for giggles I ran Mitchell’s numbers at his current pace over a 12 year career (as a backup, mind you) and I came up with 344 tackles and 8 sacks. That looks a lot like Casey Hampton, who over 12 years is at 373 tackles and 9 sacks, as a starter with 161 more starts than Mitchell.
I hate to nitpick, but I think I’m On The Nose with this one – at least as far as potential.
Yes, as my blog post noted, Mitchell played better than Cody last year. Though to be fair to Cody, his play decreased after he was hurt.
But if you look at Mitchell's game to game measures by PFF, they've been pretty marginal every year.
And when Cody went out to injury, and the Dline rotation was thin, the defense looked unfortunate. Mitchell's individual grades went up with more opportunity, but not great, and the defense had two of its worst games.
As my blog post noted, my comment wasn't meant as a pro-Cody get back post. It is more of an observation that there has been little that I've seen to suggest that once Mitchell has more snaps, he will play much better. You can extrapolate his stats, but that can be hard to do because sometimes more snaps exposes a player (OTOH, sometimes opportunity allows them to thrive).
All I know is. 1. He looks fit. 2. He looked fit last year. 3. Wade's system can be good to DTs and they can make Pro Bowl. 4. Not seeing any Pro Bowl guys on this line other than Mr. Watt. 5. I hope I'm totally wrong on Mitchell.