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Old 05-15-2013   #2
Dutchrudder 
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Default Re: FantasyFirstRoundStrategy

It really depends on the league scoring settings and the roster lineup. I play in 3 steady leagues a year with friends and coworkers, and all 3 are different. Two are PPR, one doesn't have a flex, two have 6 point passing TDs, another has -2 for all turnovers, one gives points to individual players for return stats. It gets a bit daunting to keep them all straight come draft time, but it does make a big difference in draft values. I tend to prefer getting my QB and RB1 in the first two rounds, but sometimes it just doesn't work out. After that I generally go WR/RB, WR/RB, WR.

In any case, I tend to earmark specific players as potential breakouts compared to their value and ADP leading up to each draft. Last year I won two different leagues with the same 1st and 2nd round picks in Aaron Rodgers and Adrian Peterson. I felt like both of those guys were great value for their draft positions, early 1st and late 2nd. Peterson was a risk, but I was willing to take a chance on him, and it paid off.

Other guys I had earmarked for 3rd and later, but didn't get all of them were Reggie Wayne, Antonio Brown, AJ Green, VJax, Colston, etc etc. I prefer to get WRs in the middle rounds because they are a dime a dozen to me. Their production isn't nearly as consistent as RBs, and there are always flukey guys that come out of nowhere each season. I prefer #1 WRs as well, and try not to deal with guys that are "supposed to take that next step" according to analysts. Also, a lot of these guys were undervalued due to change on the team's makeup, and I love it when people take rookies over proven players like the ones listed above. Vjax leaves SD and becomes a 6th round pick? C'mon! I love it when stuff like that happens and they just fall in my lap. Reggie Wayne was severely undervalued due to Peyton leaving, yet he still had a great season. I think I got him in the 7-9th in two leagues.

On the other hand I like to blackball players from my draft sheet due to injury or overhyping. Last year guys like Gronkowski, Newton, Fitzgerald, Vick, Gore, Philly WRs, McFadden, Matthews and the Dallas Cowboys were all removed from my lists. I didn't want any part of them in the 1st or 2nd cause I thought they were all overvalued. In Vinny's league I passed on several of those guys in favor of proven consistent producers like Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham. Jimmy got hurt down the stretch and really cost me in the playoffs, but for the majority of the season they were consistent.

So I guess that's my main advice, go with consistent producers over shooting for the moon with injury prone players. Don't go by someone else's list alone, edit it, cross off players you don't want or think are too risky, and go with what you think. Its always way more fun to win with your own plans working than someone else's rankings anyways.

Follow the league and look for obvious over/under-valuing of guys. For instance, this year I expect all the Denver receivers to be overvalued due to Peyton being there, but there is just too much talent on that team for the ball to get around IMO. Thomas and Welker are gonna be 2nd/3rd round picks, and I just don't see them producing as such. On the list you linked, Crabtree is rated as their #9 WR, and I would avoid that until at least the 6th round. There are a dozen guys below him I would rather have. I expect Torrey Smith is going to be severely undervalued this year after Boldin left, and Flacco has been unleashed. Antonio Brown is going to get a lot more attention now that Wallace is gone, and he's a returnman, so I will definitely be targeting him in the 6-8 rounds. Deandre Hopkins probably won't be a sleeper in Houston-centric FF leagues, but around the country many won't think to take him before the 7th or so, and he could wind up being a good flyer.
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