Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck
The fact that these grades are just a reflection of different people's opinions doesn't bother me. And I'm not sure why it seems to bother you.
I think everyone recognizes that the draft can't really be graded until the careers of the guys picked are nearing completion.
I'm not irate about this stuff. It doesn't BOTHER me like political stuff I'd rather not talk about bothers me.
I just think grades are sort of silly because they are usually wrong and yet people treat them like they mean something.
So I'm just acknowledging the extreme lack of information for making an informed analysis on this subject by giving smiley face stars and silly grades to drafts instead of letter grades.
Personally, I would prefer the focus to be on trying to find out more about the players, and waiting and seeing, and less about judging them before they have done anything.
Yes, predictions, and analysis and people coming out with 2014 mock drafts and stuff is all just blathering until there is something real to talk about.
But as an aside....
I do get concerned that sometimes fans get overly wed to pre-draft assessments of players. Like they almost would rather be right than see a guy do something different than their assessment.
Maybe that is just something I see a lot from blog comments. And sometimes from message board comments. Where a fan will crush a guy before he's had a chance to do much of anything. And then come back long after, and go, man I was wrong on that guy. Or maybe never come around on a guy. Or the total opposite.
From a psychology stand point, often our first impressions are ones that we want to hold on to, even when evidence comes around that flies in the face of it because as humans we want certainty on things that are inherently uncertain.
A good article on this subject in general in the New Yorker Magazine recently
The human mind is incredibly averse to uncertainty and ambiguity; from an early age, we respond to uncertainty or lack of clarity by spontaneously generating plausible explanations. What’s more, we hold on to these invented explanations as having intrinsic value of their own. Once we have them, we don’t like to let them go.
In 1972, the psychologist Jerome Kagan posited that uncertainty resolution was one of the foremost determinants of our behavior. When we can’t immediately gratify our desire to know, we become highly motivated to reach a concrete explanation. That motivation, in Kagan’s conception, lies at the heart of most other common motives: achievement, affiliation, power, and the like. We want to eliminate the distress of the unknown. We want, in other words, to achieve “cognitive closure.” This term was coined by the social psychologist Arie Kruglanski, who eventually defined it as “individuals’ desire for a firm answer to a question and an aversion toward ambiguity,” a drive for certainty in the face of a less than certain world. When faced with heightened ambiguity and a lack of clear-cut answers, we need to know—and as quickly as possible.
It’s a self-reinforcing loop: we search energetically, but once we’ve seized onto an idea we remain crystallized at that point. And if we’ve externally committed ourselves to our position by tweeting or posting or speaking? We crystallize our judgment all the more, so as not to appear inconsistent. It’s why false rumors start—and why they die such hard deaths.
I still have one blog commenter who is still crushing players who objectively everybody suggests are above average to excellent players. (He is still mad about the VY thing, so maybe that's its own thing).