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Old 04-30-2013   #8
eriadoc
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

Quote:
Originally Posted by ObsiWan View Post
So are you saying you can do one without doing the other??
Grading the draft is really about grading their risk analysis. You won't know the outcome of the risk until later, but if they take a 99% proposition 100 times, the one failure doesn't invalidate the process.

Things to consider - is the risk of having to piece together a solution at ILB worth taking Trevardo Williams in the 4th round? Or Montgomery in the third? How does the risk of Da'Rick Rogers being a screw-up weigh against his outstanding physical talents vs. the need for a playmaker at the WR position on this team before the window closes? Or Montgomery's physical talent vs. character concerns?

Montgomery is interesting to think about in this manner. The Texans hit on a player that has first round talent in the third round. They had the stones to take him, despite the knocks on him from other teams. Whether he fails or succeeds as a player doesn't really affect the draft process. It's how he fails, if he does. If he fails because he ends up being not a very good football player, well, that's life in the NFL. It happens all the time. However, if he fails because of character concerns, then that was a crappy pick.

Another good draft day example is Amobi Ok0ye. He was a young player that had physical talent, smarts, and lots of room to improve. But could the team, at that point in their development, afford to take on a project with a first round pick? I say no, and that's why that was a terrible first round pick. That he failed, or at best became JAG, is a sideline to whether the pick was good or not. The pick, or the process, is also graded by what else was available at that point, how it fit the team's needs, how the prospect was graded, etc.

Obviously, we don't have access to 99% of the info that the Texans have, so it's all speculation from the fans anyway, but that's what we do as fans, because baseball season sucks. I just prefer to speculate and try to grade their risk analysis and draft process rather than the players. The players will be graded by their play on the field. I also recognize that other people probably don't think about this the same way I do, and that's fine. But they're wrong.
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