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Old 04-26-2013   #20
ArlingtonTexan
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Default Re: 2013 Expectations for DeAndre Hopkins

Quote:
Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
I think he'll get a chance to succeed, but it'll be measured. It's not like the Texans chose a blue chipper that they'll go out of their way to feed the ball. Hell, AJ was a blue chip prospect and he got 66 catches for 976 yards his rookie season. And his career high in TDs is 9, with 8 three other times. We got one post saying Hopkins needs to come in as a rookie and put up numbers just short of AJ's rookie year.

Just for perspective, guys that were drafted 20 or lower (arbitrary number, but later in the first round) recently:

2012: Kendall Wright, AJ Jenkins, Brian Quick (#33 overall)
2011: Jon Baldwin
2010: Demaryious Thomas, Dez Bryant
2009: Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt.

So let's shift the analysis just a bit. How many TARGETS do you think Hopkins will get? In their rookie years, the above players put up:

Wright: 64-626-4 (104 targets)
Jenkins: 0-0-0 (0)
Quick: 11-156-2 (28)
Baldwin: 21-254-1 (52)
Thomas: 22-283-2 (39)
Bryant: 45-561-6 (72)
Harvin: 60-790-6 (75)
Nicks: 47-790-6 (75)
Britt: 42-701-3 (75)

So do you think Hopkins is going to get targeted 70-something times, or closer to 30-40?

Walter got targeted 68 times last year. He had 41 catches for 518 yards, 2 TDs, 12.6 avg. If you think Hopkins takes every one of Walter's targets, as a rookie, you should probably realistically expect similar numbers.

The TDs are just a pipe dream. This team doesn't throw a lot of TDs to any given WR.
68 targets is silly low for a guy with the snaps that Walter got. 80 targets would be 5 a game and I think that is a realistically low if anything.
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