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Old 04-24-2013   #9
76Texan
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Default Re: A Metrics Study Of Undervalued/Overrated Draft Prospects

I've read them before, and I like the method, but it doesn't work for all players.
Also, it seems to me they only take into consideration the last year.

Underrated or overrated depends on where a player is drafted.

They didn't like Hunter in the first round, and rightfully so.
Hunter dropped too many balls per catchable passes and is therefore unreliable in that regard.
That's why I didn't want to put him in the first round.
However, his measurables and athleticism is way up there such that his ceiling is higher than a guy like Stedman Bailey, whose production is amongst the best, if not the best.

Bailey had done pretty much everything right to achieve the results.
He runs smart route (giving his QB plenty of room away from the defender to throw the ball open.) He played physically to fight off his defender and beat him to the spot. He worked hard and was very efficient in blocking even against bigger defenders. He consistently worked to keep BOTH feet in bound. He's ready to play soon, if not right away.

But his measurables are quite "pedestrian".
With him what you see is what you get, but he will be playing against better players in the NFL.
If he has not much more room to grow, he won't be as successful at the next level. Perhaps he can work to improve his deep speed at least a little.

Based on his production, end of the fourth is exceptional low, and so they deem that Bailey is underrated.
I agree. I would put Bailey early to mid third.
At the least, he can be a slot receiver.
In a spread offense, he might have a little more value, and should probably earn a late second round grade.
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