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Old 04-24-2013   #10
Insideop
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Default Re: A Metrics Study Of Undervalued/Overrated Draft Prospects

Of the Undervalued players I noticed several the Texans may have their eyes on and seem to fit the Texans M.O. of players they try to select.

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Ryan Griffin, TE - Connecticut
Some critics of Griffin have noted his lack of ability after the catch, the statistics couldn’t disagree more. At 7.2 yards after the catch, the big TE has the second highest YAC in the entire class only behind Travis Kelce (10 yards/ catch) and ahead of consensus number one TE, Tyler Eifert. Per STATS ICE, Griffin didn’t drop a single ball this year showing excellent hands. His strong hands and YAC allowed him to convert 72.4% of his receptions into first downs or touchdowns for the Huskies.
Griffin seems like a likely Texan pick at TE with great hands. Not to sure about his blocking skills but Draft Scout says he's an aggressive blocker who's tough and compares to Garrett Graham. He's rated to go in the 7th or FA.

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Brennan Williams, OT – North Carolina
While everyone focuses on the big three OTs and athletic specimens like Menelik Watson, Brennan Williams had a very quiet 2012 season (in a good way). Williams only allowed 5 combined pressures the entire season at UNC, less than all of the big three OTs. He may be underrated or underappreciated in the media, but expect teams to take note of his quality pass blocking.
Williams has been picked by several on this MB and other sites to be a fit for the Texans.

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Jordan Hill, DT – Penn State
While big names like Sharif Floyd and Star Lotulelei dominate the discussion about defensive tackles, Jordan Hill deserves to be discussed based on his stats alone. As a pass rushing DT, Hill grades out with a Snaps Per Pressure (SPP) of 13.3, which makes him the most efficient pass rusher of the DTs (slightly ahead of Sheldon Richardson) and more efficient than some pass rushing DEs like Datone Jones. Hill also had the most combined tackles in the backfield and 1-2 yards from the LOS (25 tackles), more than any defensive tackle. Based on these metrics alone, Hill should be considered solid all-around DT to be picked earlier than the 4th-5th round he’s projected in.
Hill seems like a Wade pick with his quickness as a pass rushing DT. Draft Scout also says he has a "non-stop motor" which is another trait Wade seems to covet.

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Josh Johnson , CB – Purdue
Defensive backs in general are a bit tricky to apply statistics too, but there are some things we can look at to evaluate their play quality in college. Two of my favorite stats are pass defensed per target and how often a player was beaten on their targets. With 19 passes defensed on 86 targets in 2012, Johnson had the best ability to knock down balls on a per target basis amongst late round CBs. He also was burned on only 44% of his targets, which is to say 37 passes thrown in his area were completed. That burn rate is lower than every CB expected to be picked after round 3 and equivalent to some CBs like Johnthan Banks and Darius Slay. To see Johnson’s penchant for knocking down passes (and generating pass interference penalties) see his play against Notre Dame's star TE Eifert.
Purdue player and CB. I'll be surprised if Rick passes on this one.

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Josh Evans, S – Florida
While teammate Matt Elam drew most of the attention at Florida, Josh Evans did an excellent job in coverage for the Gators. Evans’ burn rate was 35%, one of the lowest in the entire NCAA last year. Often times playing deep safety, Evans was only targeted 20 times the entire season. On those 20, he defensed 6 passes – the same amount as Kenny Vaccaro on far more targets. While he didn’t make many impact tackles, he did a solid job at tackling with 11 missed tackles in total, about average for this safety class. Evans may not be the complete package as a safety right now, but certainly has potential as a starting FS with his coverage skills.
Evans is another guy that a lot of people want us to go after and he seems like a good pupil for Reed and Manning to mentor. He's slated by Draft Scout to go in the 4th and Walter Football puts him between the 3rd and 5th rounds.
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