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Old 04-20-2013   #4
The Pencil Neck
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Default Re: Daniel Jeremiah: NFL Draft: Prospect sequence list drives team decisions

Quote:
Originally Posted by badboy View Post
It still comes down to individual opinions on players. We have repeatedly seen on this MB alone how several people can watch college and NFL players and have different views. I doubt all scouts agree 100% on player ratings. I cannot remember anyone's mock being 100% the same as the draft actually goes. That is part of the interest for me.
One of the reasons I like the Texans Talk mock (even though I didn't get to participate this year) is that although it's not "realistic" in some ways, it's more realistic in others.

Every team out there has their own list of guys ranked in their own sequence. No two teams will be alike. During the draft, some teams get slammed for who they pick and when they pick them but that's just the difference between how that team had guys sequenced (and how they think OTHER teams had these guys sequenced) vs. how the pundits had the guys sequenced. Just because the pundits slam someone for making a reach that doesn't mean it was a reach. There could have been several teams that had that particular player sequenced the same way as the team that got slammed.

Every year, the draft goes on and there are guys who the pundits have ranked high but who fall and fall and fall right out of the draft. That just shows that the pundits sequence was way different than any of the professionals not that any of the teams made a mistake.

When people create mocks, they're just working from a single sequence and how they expect guys to be valued. It misses that randomness from the differences between all the different player lists.

And it also ignores that teams perceive their own need differently from how outside sources perceive them. They look at players and grade them differently based on if they think they'll "fit" what they do. There are guys who are on the "master" sequence who aren't even on many teams' board because they see them as a bad fit or they detect other red flags.

I guess all I'm trying to say is that it's a beautiful and chaotic process and I love it.
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