View Single Post
Old 02-13-2013   #7
Rey
Hall of Fame
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 14,475
Rep Power: 0 Rey is a quality contributor and well respectedRey is a quality contributor and well respectedRey is a quality contributor and well respectedRey is a quality contributor and well respectedRey is a quality contributor and well respectedRey is a quality contributor and well respectedRey is a quality contributor and well respectedRey is a quality contributor and well respectedRey is a quality contributor and well respectedRey is a quality contributor and well respectedRey is a quality contributor and well respected
Default Re: Doppelmock Version 5.0: PreCombine Double Mock!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Doppelganger View Post
Let's play a numbers game. How many WRs, DTs, and OGs have been selected in the first 2 rounds in the last 5 years?

WRs: 9, 7, 4, 8, 9
DTs:6, 6, 9, 4, 3
OGs:5, 2, 1, 0, 1

The mean number of WRs taken is 7.4. The mean number of DTs taken is 5.6. The mean number of OGs taken is 1.8 with last year potentially being an outlier.

How many quality WRs prspects would I be happy with in the first 2 rounds? 12: Allen, Williams, Austin, Hopkins, Hunter, Patterson, Rogers, Hamilton, Woods, Wheaton, Davis, and Patton. How about DTs? 5: Lotulelei, Hankins, Williams, Williams, and Jenkins. How about OGs?: 5: Warmack, Warford, Fluker, Cooper, and Thomas.

If my math is correct and history repeats itself, 7 WRs, 6 DTs, and 2 OGs will go in the first 2 rounds. Logic suggests that all 5 DTs I like could be gone by the Texans second pick, 5 WRs may be available, and 3 OGs could be had.

Thus, if all were equal, I would take NT Brandon Williams with the 1st rounde and then take the best WR on my board in the 2nd round. OG would have to be addressed in the 3rd or later.
I agree in principal, but you have to look more closely. This could easily be an outlier year and you might have more teams drafting a certain position based need or perceived value.

Also, setting aside what other teams might do we need to take the player that will help us the most.

There are a lot of variables. What you mention is really just one variable to look at, but should be considered.
Rey is offline   Reply With Quote