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Old 02-01-2013   #46
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

Originally Posted by deucetx View Post
And no one is saying Walter is at fault for the offense. That would be a bit silly. Saying that a piece needs to be upgraded does not equal the entire offense sitting on their shoulders. But plain and simple we aren't getting enough out of that position. Yeah it rest on Schaub shoulders but he isn't going anywhere. So we sit around going with status quo or do we upgrade and get better? Oh and Dennison doesn't call the plays. Kubiak does. He just has input.

Even the teams you brought up, every receiver in those equations is more talented than Walter as a receiver. There are no if's and's or but's about it. And an offense can only be executed up to the level of your personnel. If you have only one receiver capable of stretching a field or getting open without a scheme/playaction, you are hindered offensively. People seem to not think that maybe Walter isn't targetted even more because they don't find him as capable? He lost plays to Posey from week 15+ for a reason.

And if you want to hit percentages here are five quarterbacks who threw it less or more than Schaub (544):

Denver (583) - Best comparison: Stokley - 45 rec 544yds 5tds 58 targets 9.9% target (4th option tied w/Dressn) Stokley had a lower target percent to Walter (12.3 to 9.9) yet still had better production. And again, 4th option.

Oakland (565) - Heyward-Bey 41rec 606yards 5tds 80 targets 12.7% target

Tampa Bay (558) - No one to really compare. Their top two were targetted 20%+ (Jackson/Williams) and are of course better than Walter. Closes to Walter % was Martin the RB who almost had better numbers than Walter from that position which is a bit sad.

Green Bay (552) - They all out produced Walter (Nelson, Jones, Cobb) but we'll take the guy with the closes percentage in Nelson - 49 rec 745yards 7tds 73 targets 13.1 target%

St. Louis (551) TE Kendricks 42 rec 519 yards 4td's 11.5% (Top 3 receivers all better than Walter but w/ target % from 14.5 - 18.1)

NYG (536) WR Hixon 39 rec 567 yards 2tds 10.9% (again 4th option as top two receivers and TE out-produced Walter easily)

Baltimore (531) WR Jones 30 rec 409 yards 1td 9.6% (5th option. Top receivers easily better than Walter, TE and Rice almost did better than Walter too)

Cincinati (528) WR Hawkins 51 rec 533 yards 4td's 14.8% (3rd options but everyone else too low target%. Since this one is 2% more than Walter wouldn't bother)

San Diego (527) TE Gates 49 rec. 538 yards 7tds 14.8% (3rd option. Next closes is RB Ronnie Brown)

Cleveland (517) TE Watson 49 rec. 501 yards 3tds 14.5% (3rd option as receivers...once again...higher. RB Richardson closes)

Kevin Walter - 41 rec 518 yards 2tds 12.3% target percentage

Just looking at this it is almost seemingly like we are running three TE sets out there because Walter simply does not contribute as he use to. And no, this isn't just system base because under Kubiak we got more from receivers in the past including Walter in '07 and '08. In '06 our 2nd option was a receiver as well in Moulds. But this is 2013 and what can Walter contribute now?

And for the ones saying 'fanbase' this is not just the fans. Folks outside the organization say it as well. Heck, our owner said it. We need more from this position. We saw this in the playoffs and it should be apparent. Heck I took random mock drafts just for the feel how others think we should go and the breakdown was WR 5, ILB 4, Safety 2, TE 1, DT 1. But let's even look at our receiving playoff numbers:

Walter was 4th in receptions, last in yards, 2nd lowest avg. per reception (only Foster was lower by .3), and the lowest 1st down percentage. Yes, Posey did better than Walter on his few catches and less targets. It helped he can actually get down the field.

Defense simply bogged down, increased their presence in the box and began to stifle our offense. We can always go into the system with more of the same and hope it works. Or maybe we can evolve the offense by adding a playmaker at a spot most teams get more contribution for and take the offense to another level. Walter isn't faster now than he was in '08 so chances are we aren't getting that guy again. You don't get faster as you age.

And we can try to disregard stats if we wish but GM, scouts, etc. do not. PFF for example is utilized by a handful of actual NFL clubs. Two have admitted as such in the Giants and Bears. It is already illustrated Walter is not the top ten blocking WR that many seem to perceive he is. Receiving wise? He is ranked #72 among 105 receivers that got at least 25% of the snaps.

Simply put. There is no stat out there to illustrate Walter is a strong #2 receiver in this league. Nada. There are more numbers pointing to the complete opposite. Is he a bad receiver? Of course not. But he is not a #2 and this offense needs more weapons because Schaub will be the quarterback whether we like it or not (unless someone just comes in and goes lights out) and Kubiak will still call the plays. Something has to change and those two pieces aren't going to.
Excellent points. I like looking at stats. And the intent of my posts have not been about a KW lovefest. I'm simply pointing out that the two teams in the Super Bowl did not have #2 and #3 stats that were significantly different than what the Texans #2 and #3 guys did.

It comes back to the point that I originally commented on: does this team need two 90+ receivers to be successful?

KW is 10 years in and a 40-50 reception a season kind of guy. There is a place for him on this team. I just think there are people caught up in the "#2" next to his name. And I don't think you have to go find a 90+ reception guy to be on the other side of AJ in order for this team to be successful in the passing game. I don't think that is how this offense is designed. There seems to be a fixation on "stud". Keeping KW (or at least his production) and adding a 60-70 reception guy seems like a better fit for this offense. IMHO, of course.
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